Originally Posted by
Flyhighfirst
We have been to South Africa 6 times. My wife goes out running in the morning (before I even wake up thankfully) everyday. Never had a problem. All cities have some risks. There are some suburbs in New York I wouldn’t go to. As well as in London, and Los Angeles.
I would feel safer in some areas of South Africa than I would in some areas of the US.
what vacuous and utterly flawed reasoning! You've been there 6 times and not been mugged or murdered? - well it MUST be safe - no further evidence required!
Anyone who knows the current state of SA knows it has become extremely dangerous. It used to be ok outside the known hotspots, but that violent crime has permeated throughout almost all of the country. Utterly unpredictable violence and murder - I personally knew someone randomly shot at traffic lights (no resistance, no demands - just shoot first, then take the bag, zero regard for life) and another who's farm workers tried to kill him. And I only know a dozen or so people there!
SA murder rate 42 (/100000/yr)... USA = 6.4. UK = 1.2
A basic grasp of empirical risk might come in useful in more ways than one!