We seem to be living in incredible times - deploying extra frigates to the Middle East while talking of cutting numbers, talking of mothballing the LPDs and letting talk of losing the amphibious capability get out of hand, and as always the carriers get the blame. I have heard a suggestion that the leaks were 'pitch rolling' - whatever that means...
Firstly - personnel numbers. Thanks to Capita the services have a problem getting interested applicants to the point of actually joining. In addition, some of you may remember that in 2015 the RN expected a personnel uplift of 1500 people (as did the RAF). A great deal of work had been put into coming up with these figures and what to do with the extra people, but Cameron lacked the backbone to stand up to backbenchers when he made a promise about 'troop numbers' whilst not increasing the number (on paper - which included personnel who did not actually exist) of overall personnel in HM Forces.
I do not welcome his return to front line politics.
Secondly - have a look at this
Telegraph article partly quoted above:
Aircraft carriers are not a problem. Inter-service tribalism is
The title says it all really. The backbenchers thought of their old regiments...
Thirdly - frigates. Cutting numbers even further years before the replacements are ready makes no sense, as we are deploying more of them in the Middle East and on NATO tasking.
HMS Richmond heads to Gulf to support Diamond and Lancaster safeguard shipping - Royal Navy
Royal Navy warship HMS Richmond is Gulf-bound to support the international effort protecting shipping.
The frigate will stand in for HMS Diamond and HMS Lancaster when either vessel needs to break off patrols for re-supply or maintenance.
Diamond is assigned to a newly-established international security mission, Operation Prosperity Guardian which was inaugurated last month following a series of drone and missile attacks threatening shipping passing through the Red Sea.
Meanwhile frigate HMS Lancaster is on a long-term mission in the Middle East, largely focused on the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, hunting down drug smugglers and arms traffickers, while providing a reassurance presence to lawful seafarers.
In announcing Richmond’s deployment – the ship made a low-key departure from Plymouth on Friday, waved off by a small number of family and friends – Defence Secretary Grant Shapps told fellow MPs that there had been a fivefold increase in attacks against merchant shipping in the past month.
When she arrives in the region in a few weeks, Richmond will, Mr Shapps said “provide resilience to the UK’s presence in the Gulf”.
If necessary, the frigate will use her Sea Ceptor anti-missile system to protect herself and merchant vessels, as well as providing the wider assurance of the presence of a warship.
She heads for the Middle East having only returned to Devonport shortly before Christmas on another short-notice mission, helping to protect undersea infrastructure in the Baltic in support of regional allies...
A great time to be talking about cuts!
Fourthly: Bootnecks and amphibious capabilities. This was on the RN website yesterday:
Another year at the sharp end: Royal Marines in 2023 - Royal Navy
Looking north to the Arctic Circle and Baltic, Commandos carried out their annual winter deployment in Norway to keep themselves razor sharp for combat in the extreme cold – honing skills in survival, the ability move across the snow and ice and, finally, fight alongside allies in one of the world’s most unforgiving environments.
Following this up, Royal Marines headed to the Baltic Sea to take part in Sweden’s largest military drills in 25 years before heading to Estonia for Baltops – the largest annual NATO training in the region.
Commandos returned to the Baltic this month, taking part in Finland’s first major military drills as a NATO member and mastering the complex coastline near to capital Helsinki.
There remains ongoing operations in the Mediterranean, while 45 Commando have just completed Exercise Green Dagger
– which saw the Arbroath-based unit work in the High Sierras in California to conduct high altitude and advanced mountain training.
At home in the UK, Royal Marines spent more than six months training nearly 1,000 Ukrainian counterparts in the art of commando raiding and complex amphibious operations.
Specialist instructors from across the UK Commando Force passed on invaluable expertise and knowledge in how to plan and carry out raids using small boats by day and night.
“Whether at sea or on land, in training or on operations, the Royal Marines have truly embodied the Defence purpose of protect the nation and help it prosper – and I am immensely proud of all you have achieved,” added General Jenkins.
“Behind every Marine is a network of support and strength, and I’d like to share my heartfelt gratitude for the sacrifices made by those who stand by our side and allow us to focus and succeed on operations.
“To them, I send my deepest gratitude and admiration for the part they play in protecting our Nation.
“As we look ahead to our 360th year, 2024 promises to be no less exciting.
“While it’s impossible to predict exactly where the Royal Marines will find themselves, rest assured, the warfighting Commando Force and expertise of the Royal Marines will be in high demand!”
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In Den Helder, the two NATO and Joint Expeditionary Force allies shared plans on ships to carry the vehicles, boats, aircraft, and weaponry of highly-trained marines – and, vitally, land them ashore wherever they’re needed...
Fifthly:
We got too accustomed to peaceful seas -
Freight Waves
It’s somewhat ahistorical that the world’s oceans have been relatively painless to navigate in the second half of the 20th century, permitting trade to flow around the world. That was not the case for much of human history. “Pirates, predatory states, and the fleets of great powers did as they pleased,” wrote Jerry Hendrix, senior fellow at the Sagamore Institute, in The Atlantic last year. “The current reality, which dates only to the end of World War II, makes possible the commercial shipping that handles more than 80% of all global trade by volume — oil and natural gas, grain and raw ores, manufactured goods of every kind.”
Such peace can no longer be assumed. It’s unclear whether ongoing diversions from the Suez Canal will become the norm going forward, but it’s clear that things are shifting — and it’s not in the favor of frictionless trade or a U.S. hegemony.
“It was almost like you had a conveyor belt from the shoe factory in Bangladesh to the shop in Chicago,” said Simon Sundboell, founder and CEO of Copenhagen-based maritime intelligence company eeSea. “That’s just not happening anymore. You’re in a world that’s going increasingly from American-controlled unipolar to multipolar globally. You’re going to have a much more fraught supply chain, and every BCO [beneficial cargo owner], importer, exporter, and logistics provider is going to have to deal with that going forward. The Houthis are just one step in that.”