Ukraine War Thread Part 2

[NutLoose]

Interesting Twitter post.

Todays attack of Russia on #Ukraine was the biggest military failure of Russia in a long time. The strategic balance has shifted after tonight, allow me to explain how Russia lost tonights "Billion Dollar Brawl" in a catastrophic manner.

This attack involved a very substantial amount of weapons, fired in a time and space coordinated fashion on select targets. The idea behind such an attack against air defense is to overwhelm the defending side with force, in a so called "saturation attack".

Any missle system only has a limited amount of ready to fire missles, before it needs to reload. The well known Patriot System has 4 Missles per Launcher Truck with PAC-2 Missles, and 16 with the smaller PAC-3 Missles. The IRIS-T System is similar, with 8 Ready to Fire Missles per Truck. See below picture, once they are fired, you need to take a truck, reload the launcher with new "boxes", that are both the storage and launch container.

So why did the strategic balance shift today? Russia has saved up cruise missles and other missle assets for quite some time, to plan and execute this attack on critical civillian infrastructures of Ukraine. They have used their intelligence assets to try to understand how the Air Defence of Ukraine is structured.

They have employed so called SEAD/DEAD Missions using Anti-Radiation Missles and Electronic Warfare, both aimed at rendering Air Defence ineffective and destroying it. This was not "nothing", this was likely the best gameplan they could execute, with the assets available.


Despite these efforts, they were only able to hit with less than 5% of the ordnance employed. Thats a failure of russian strategic aviation, and signals that Russia, despite gains on the ground, will no longer be able to massively attack ukrainian critial infrastructures. This would have been unthinkable a year ago, this is a huge triumph for #ukraine but also the countries supporting it.

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C Schmitz
@chrisschmitz
And because I am lazy, here is a good gpt explanation on aforementioned terms: Saturation Attack Explained Objective: The primary objective of a saturation attack is to flood the enemy's air defense systems with more targets than they can effectively track and engage, thereby reducing their overall effectiveness or neutralizing them altogether.

Methodology: This is achieved by simultaneously launching a large number of offensive assets. These can include a mix of manned aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), cruise missiles, and other precision-guided munitions. Overloading Defense Systems: The key is to overload the radar and sensor capabilities of the air defense network. Modern air defense systems are designed to track and engage multiple targets simultaneously, but they have limitations. By presenting more targets than the system can handle, some offensive weapons are likely to penetrate the defenses.

Electronic Warfare: A saturation attack is often complemented by electronic warfare measures. These include jamming enemy radar and communication systems to further degrade their ability to respond effectively.

SEAD/DEAD Operations SEAD and DEAD are specialized military operations aimed at neutralizing enemy air defense systems. Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD): This involves temporarily neutralizing enemy air defense capabilities to ensure the safety of friendly aircraft during a specific mission. It's not about destroying the systems but suppressing their operations.

Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (DEAD): DEAD operations aim for the permanent destruction of enemy air defense assets. This involves targeting radars, anti-aircraft artillery, surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites, and command and control (C2) nodes. Tactics and Techniques: Both SEAD and DEAD operations use a combination of electronic warfare, decoys, and direct attacks on air defense assets. Stealth technology and advanced tactics are employed to evade or suppress enemy radar and SAM systems. Role of ARM (Anti-Radiation Missiles) ARM missiles are a critical component in SEAD/DEAD operations.

Function: These missiles are designed to home in on the electronic emissions from enemy radar systems. They are particularly effective against ground-based air defense radars.

Tactics: In a typical SEAD/DEAD operation, ARM missiles are among the first wave of weapons deployed. They target radar systems, aiming to blind the enemy’s air defense network and pave the way for subsequent strikes. Advantages: The use of ARMs reduces the risk to manned aircraft, as they can be launched from outside the effective range of most SAM systems. They also force enemy radar operators to choose between staying active (and thus vulnerable to ARMs) or shutting down their radars (and losing situational awareness). Integration with Other

Assets: ARMs are often used in conjunction with electronic warfare aircraft, UAVs, and cyber warfare techniques to maximize their effectiveness and ensure the overall success of SEAD/DEAD operations.