Originally Posted by
RickNRoll
I don't know about blaming BoM for the event, but certainly worth asking questions as to why the rainfall forecasts were so badly off and also why detailed warnings went out so late. A lot of people were lulled into a false sense of security by the fact that the cyclone was downgraded from a Severe storm. Cat 1s and 2s aren't uncommon in the region but rainfall of that intensity isn't the norm.
I follow a couple of private forecasters and one in particular said about 36 hours before landfall that Jasper wouldn't be remembered for the wind, but would be for the rainfall. That wasn't reflected in BoM forecasts until way too late. The problem they're alluding to is that BoM no longer base people locally, who can look out the window and who have an understanding of the on the ground impact of say Barron River flood gauges peaking.