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Old 16th Dec 2023, 08:22
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safetypee
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
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… THE question - to self

'Then it begs the question': not how, but should we be doing this.

After evaluating or taking a report as fact (turbulence, windshear, developing storms, ice), there will always be some uncertainty. What did the reporter experience - where, when. Is the report fact or forecast; how defined, why, by whom, when.
Safe flight depends on your interpretation, your definition, your choice, your judgement, decision, responsibility; and to remind yourself that you (flying), are matching your perception of personal skill and performance in the expected conditions. More often we think that we are better (before the fact) than we are - the reality of after the fact - not as in the book.

Situations rarely have a single factor. Thus the experience of flying through a storm has little relevance to the approach and landing - with the previously unseen, much larger storm following on; diversion had been rejected based on revised weather reports. Thus downwind landing on wet runway - judicious evaluation of landing performance - assume flooded runway - it was.

Small storm, mod turbulence low level; very large storm sever turbulence down to ground level, wind-shear, down-burst, floods; fortunately evaluated before-the-fact from a brick-built bar … but never again !
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