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Old 23rd Jan 2004, 20:53
  #26 (permalink)  
WALLEY2
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Australia
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Think again guys

There would be no aviation industry if we had a major airliner down once every 100 yrs.

That means a midair every 2-3 years around the world.

For catastrophic events in risk analysis we use multiples of 1 in 10,000 years for a particular mode of failure as they add or multiply up. For one particular mode ie: midair to be at 100 per 10,000 years would leave no room for any other mode of major airline failure as this is already bordering on being a unacceptable limit.

Think of it this way if each part in your aircraft had a 1 chance of breaking every hundred years your chances of even making one long flight would be slim. Remember a mid air is random so the gear breakage in your aircraft is random and not dependant on age. You have 10,000 parts? Your aircraft failure rate is Yikes.

Your house should be above the 1 in 100yr flood level and that is just to stop you suing if your carpets got wet. A 1in 100 storm should cause minor damage though not threaten the integrity of a structure eg: bridge, building, house, airport hangar.

With all respect the AOPA President clearly knows abolutely nothing about risk assessment and event statistics. He should take advise before commentig publically on a matter he has not the slightest knowlegde of.
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