Earlier today, a friend drew my attention to a posting made on another well-known aviation forum concerning the current outlook for route development at MAN. The comments made therein are quite disturbing if true. I can't repost the message on here for reasons of copyright, but I will refer to the gist of what is alleged. The poster concerned has a solid track record of accuracy and appears to be well-connected. Of course, there is a good chance that the contributor is a regular on here as well, though I can't be sure of that. Perhaps he / she would like to comment if they are on here?
The comments are made across two postings addressing readers on an Edinburgh Airport thread. In the first, EDI is applauded for doing a "cracking job" in attracting new carriers, but the writer goes on to contrast this with MAN where he wishes he could say the same. According to the contributor, the team at MAN have "p****d off" a LOT of carriers, and several of these are Transatlantic operators. Challenged about this, a second post follows. In it, he alleges that there has been a major breakdown in the relationship between MAN and United Airlines, and the same can be said for Westjet. It is also suggested that MAN has been uncompetitive / unrealistic on prospective fees.
So ... what can we take away from this? Firstly, based on past track record, I do think that the poster is credible. On the two airlines mentioned, United Airlines operated a very successful MAN-EWR programme (inherited from Continental) over many years. They were expected back post-covid but show no signs of reappearing. However, they are expanding elsewhere in Europe - a record total of 38 European destinations will be served by the carrier in S24, a major expansion. Given that a UAL Senior VP made a speech lauding the success of their Manchester operation shortly before covid, it is alarming that MAN can't now make their 'Top 38', even against the backdrop of US point-of-sale advantage at the present time. Moving on to Westjet, they had actually announced a MAN-Halifax scheduled service launching in S2020; this was understandably scuppered by covid. However, they have just announced new services to EDI and LGW. No mention of MAN in the conversation.
So what do we know that could explain some of the background to this?
Whilst MAN has been understandably expressing delight at the impressive resurgence of passenger numbers this year, this may be disguising an underlying malaise. Almost all the growth relates to pre-existing services being restored in the post-covid environment. Only ONE new carrier joined the roster this year, this being EgyptAir (itself a returnee from earlier years). Looking forward to S24, we have two new scheduled carriers in prospect so far in the shape of Luxair and Southwind Airlines (Türkiye). It is early days, so there is still time for others to announce. But we must note that competing airports have enjoyed a flood of transformational announcements already, and MAN appears to have been left at the altar.
I always stress the importance of the main based carriers in driving traffic growth at MAN. Looking at Ryanair, they have 16 based B738/B38M at a T3 which offers 16 B738/B38M-capable stands. Under the recently-ended tenure of Mr Cornish, there were no completed initiatives I can recall to expand the capacity of T3 ... a most unfortunate oversight in my view ... and Ryanair now appears boxed-in. Some growth at the margins may be possible, but without a radical (and early) solution, their continued growth at MAN faces strangulation. I have suggested unlocking the access from T3 core to the stands on Pier B, but there appears to be no appetite from MAG to make this happen. EasyJet is expected to move across from T1 to T2 upon the completion of construction work there. They were on 21 based A320-family aircraft for S24; it is unclear to me how many more they can add looking ahead should they wish to do so. Meanwhile, Jet2 recently announced a new four aircraft base (rising to five) down the road at LPL; one cannot presume stellar expansion from them at MAN in the light of this. Jet2 is currently operating a split-terminal operation between T1 and T2 across Summer months; after S24 they will consolidate ops in T2. TUI does not appear to be in 'growth mode' generally at the present time, so I would expect broadly "as you were" from them in any case. Virgin Atlantic is set to restore Las Vegas for S24, another pre-covid regular reappearing at last. However, Virgin's programme remains a shadow of the pre-covid equivalent, even with massive Thomas Cook competition removed from the market. Of course, fleet reductions and the imperative to safeguard LHR-slots contribute to this. Finally, but not least, Aer Lingus UK. They appear set to remain at two based A333 - quite the disappointment in reality, as a third aircraft to open up a new Transatlantic route was looking very likely until quite recently.
We will learn more about the intentions of these six based carriers when the S24 ACL report is finally made public. I would like to see that these carriers are not being involuntarily constrained by lack of capacity provision in the two older terminals.
So, moving on to prospective 'new entrant' carriers (or apparent lack of them). Why is MAN underperforming expectations so badly? What do we know?
- Under the notoriously frugal Mr Cornish, MAN left its route development team on furlough long after competing airports had brought theirs back. I believe that this directly cost MAN potential new business from Vueling and/or Transavia to ORY at the time. Since then, other airports have announced a string of big wins. MAN hasn't.
- During the furlough period, enquiries to MAN defaulted to managers inexperienced in maintaining relationships with customer airlines. There are rumours that noses were put out of joint by some less-than-diplomatic exchanges. I can't verify the truth of these rumours one way or the other, but the very suggestion of this is worrying.
- MAN's incumbent route development supremo left for a new job in India. It is understandable that his replacement needs to be afforded time to make himself known and to build relationships with MAN's airline partners, but the pressure is on to deliver some big wins (beyond restoring pre-covid frequencies) too. Is his department empowered to offer competitive financial packages and new business incentives? If not, that needs to be addressed with urgency.
- We know that executives can point to the devastating impact of covid on the business. It will take time to recover. But we must keep in mind that competing airports faced those exact same challenges. And they're announcing big wins.
- I even heard one rumour that an airline which has recently announced a new scheduled service at a competing airport contacted MAN first and didn't receive any response. If there is any truth in that, the matter must be investigated from the very top and measures put in place to ensure that this can NEVER recur. Courtesy costs nothing, and every legitimate enquiry should receive at least a friendly and positive acknowledgment.
One final suggestion from me. It does appear (based upon gossip and circumstantial evidence coming from several quarters) that MAN has lost it's way with US and Canadian carriers. Well, there aren't very many of those out there, and the same names are likely to lead the field for years to come. So if cack-handed dealings with these carriers during the furlough period has soured relations (as seems plausible), remedial action is urgently needed. I would suggest a full-on charm offensive tour featuring a delegation of senior execs headed by Chris Woodroofe himself flying over to meet with United Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Airlines, Jetblue, Breeze, Air Canada*, Air Transat* and Westjet specifically, plus any other names considered prospective. * denotes that incumbent carriers should not be overlooked; we need expansion on YYZ and restoration of YVR. Here in Europe, Virgin Atlantic, Aer Lingus UK (and IAG in general?) should be visited, along with Norse Atlantic too. Singapore Airlines (and any other likely fifth-freedom candidate) should not be overlooked. And when visiting United and Westjet (arguably others), take along afew crates of juicy doughnuts and humble pie. Plus an attractive financial offer for new or restored scheduled links.
MAG can't just wait for T2 to fully reopen and expect to click the fingers and see carriers flock back. They must be wooed now. The competition is on the case now. Once established elsewhere, their business will be difficult to win back, and there is a very small field of viable airline partners to operate those key routes which we'd all like to see introduced (or restored) at MAN.