Originally Posted by
Skipness One Foxtrot
Growth in this market can come from using bigger aircraft, easyJet are moving from away from A319s to A320/A321, Ryanair have 20% more seats in the MAX vs. the B737-800. So on a per movement basis, there is still quite some scope for growth at LGW and STN. For example LHR was declared full in 1977 and has continued to grow ever since using ever larger aircraft. What that does mean is that the likes of SEN and SOU will have to do more than just wait for the other London airports to max out. The old SOU model of higher cost, high frequency business traffic on low volume aircraft may well have seen it's best days behind us now, and a move towards high volume low cost, low frequency won't come easily. I am not convinced SEN will ever make money again now that bubble has popped, it wiil be interesting to see how SOU manage the upcoming changes.
Correct to some extent but good luck getting new aircraft anytime soon. Slots are at a premium especially for the A321. EZY just put a new order to their board that won’t see its first aircraft until 2029.
Also I don’t think SOU envisage a largish base and nor will any prospective operators. The likes of LGW, STN etc are a pain in many ways and when ever anyone uses them they suck up the fact it’s going to involve a lot of waiting, hassle etc but on balance they can bear it to get the cheap ticket. SOU is more about convenience and being a quick and hassle free experience. As a result people are happy to pay a bit more for that privilege. A smallish but decent low cost carrier base should still deliver this experience provided the right changes are made to facilitate it. So far we have seen with the runway extension and stand realignment. Maybe next is improvements to the security, baggage, northern taxiway etc and eventually the terminal expansion? SOU gives a low cost operator the opportunity to go after a different market and also charge more for tickets. Is it really that hard to see why this might be attractive to them?
I am not familiar with when SEN started to decline but was it not around the time covid hit? If so, of course being an ancillary operation to the main London airports (like SOU would be) it lost its routes whilst operators retrenched to smaller bases at the large airports.