Originally Posted by
Tartiflette Fan
In his Telegram channel, Medvedev has revealed what are Russia.s real war aims He sees this as a war that determines whether Russia will continue to exist or not, and for that reason there is simply no alternative and it will not end until Ukraine has been "swept from the earth ". He foresees the war lasting for decades, or until "the decadent West gets bored, tired of the cost and stops its support for Ukraine and Russia will be able to deliver the killing blow to the traitor."
https://www.focus.de/politik/wann-en...202444152.html
I flip-flopped whether this was for this thread or JB, hope this is seen as relevant here
FUMR has begun that on JB, but if I may focus on the military, aviation and campaign planning ramifications of that as the true war aim.
1. I believe him. The initial strike toward Kiev was intended as something like a deep attack (or a flying column) with the intent of something similar to a decapitation strike that was attempted using air assets in the OIF in 2003. Both attempts failed, but their aim was the kind of thing you get taught as a strategic planner: disable the enemy command and control and you'll have a less difficult fight. Quite frankly, if the Russians were a bit more competent at implementing their plan and running the logistics to support it, we'd not be having this discussion as they'd have achieved their ends on the ground in a week or two.
There was an analysis posted here a couple of months ago (RUSI?) regarding their fifth column / psyops campaign, that was aimed at coming across to the Ukrainians as "liberators" rather than "invaders" - needless to say, that plan didn't do what they hoped for it.
2. If one has those aims, to more or less wipe the nation state of Ukraine from the pages of history, and fold it back into Mother Russia, then one must provide a set of means to achieve that end. In the modern era, that means you have to establish air superiority. Having it isn't a guarantee, but lacking it is a recipe for failure.
They never managed to do that.
He (well, Russia if they want to succeed) needs air superiority for two core reasons:
provide own forces with more freedom of action (in the air and on the ground)
and
to deny the enemy the same (in the air and on the ground).
Both Russia and Ukraine are doing a decent job of Air Denial, in that the air volume over the battlefield / FEBA
remains contested.
I don't know how much Mr Medvedev knows about the waging of war, but if he wants to either redraw the borders of Ukraine at the Dniepr / Dnipro River, or at roughly the Romanian border, Russia will need to establish
air superiority to achieve that end.
To do that, Russia has to establish electromagnetic spectrum superiority and / or dominance. (Those go hand in hand).
3. Or Ukraine will have to run out of men and material and not be able to fight. <==== That is what he seems to be pinning his hopes upon.
And that boils down to a poor strategy since he is relying on hope as a method.
As the Chief of Staff of our Army (General Sullivan) once pointed out:
hope is not a method.
I'll ask those with some expertise in the matter: what change in plan and implementation can Mr Medvedev summon up to meet those war aims (presuming that he is one day in charge of things, as he once was).
Anyone have an idea?
How does Russia apply their means at hand to achieve those ends?
I am not sure that they are achievable at this point. Could someone provide Mr Medvedev with a memo?