Originally Posted by
Deano969
Meaning REX don't see a future in being a stand alone regional that serves every tin pot airport that no one else bothers to serve
Prior to VA going busto, they were somewhat happy being the above and they had a reasonable association with VA happily pushing passengers to each other
When VA failed there were 2 factors leading to their foray into their jet age
1) They could be the next VA similar to when AN sent busto
2) REX had no other player left to interline to and from for their passengers transiting beyond state capitals
So point 1 a bit of opportunistic greed and point 2 a matter of survival against QF / Link that could do eg. Dubbo to Melbourne on the one ticket
Now the see themselves as a smaller version of QF / VA
Their plan I believe is
Grow jet operations to around 30 over the next few years
Offer hourly on the triangle
Cover all state capitals
Jets into regional ports such as CNS, TSV, MKY, ROK, BDB, MCY, OOL, BNK, CFS, CBR, HBA, LST
Keep larger regional operations and drop (as they have) marginal ones
Keep their customers on the one ticket from regional to other state destinations
Replace SAABs with ATRs or now more likely Q400s as they now have a few on fleet through NJE and it looks like they will start them out west
A smaller version of QF or a version of VA but with their on regional network as a feed allowing for pilot progression from training / cadet through props to jets
In the background dabbling in FIFO and contract ops
Can't see them doing ULC or buying out an established Bonza
Can see them doing something with QR on international if they get their Oz ownership level right though
Not just to Doha either, I can totally see QR birds with ZL paint doing Asia, NZ and US
This is not fantasy as they are already having talks
For QR
Expanded network with more metal to Oz
REX pilot academy for a source of experienced pilots
A better and more cost effective alternative than a VA buy out
For REX
A way to counteract the losses of pilots to QF and others
A career path from academy to props, jets and widebodies that is well managed
A strong financial backer
International feed
Wow Deano, I want some of whatever you’ve been smoking!
If (and it’s a big if) they can financially survive the next 2-3 years, then their only future lies in cannibalising the SAAB pilots to fly a slowly expanding jet operation.
The fundamental problem here is that
a) they went cheap with engine maintenance during COVID and it’s massively bitten them in the ass, and
b) the pilot shortage is real and there’s no avoiding it for them.
You say they’ll use AAPA to feed 30 jets and also Q400s, but you miss the fundamental problem. They’ve had AAPA all along, and they’re still desperately short of pilots right now. They’re clambering out the door. You can’t just click your fingers over night at AAPA and spit out 50-100 pilots per year who won’t leave. They need AAPA instructors, more GA aircraft, SAAB check and trainers, SAAB sim instructors, 737 trainers and sim checkers. Where are they going to get all of them from, when the majority of them are resigning to fly e-jets and 717s and join mainline?
Rex pilots will have a golden ticket to mainline when their recruiting kicks off again shortly, because they’re one of the few airlines producing good pilots that aren’t from a subsidiary. The trickle rates into mainline have been glacial from subsidiaries and that’s likely to get even worse. Qantas know that taking pilots from Rex means they aren’t passing in their own yard.
I have no idea why Rex are announcing courses of more Chinese pilots. It may be a good money spinner, but they should be cancelling them and training as many as possible for Rex themselves.
What I see is the SAAB operation closing down. Eventually they’ll realise they just can’t crew the thing, and so they’ll sell the airframes and use it to feed the jet operation with pilots - those that don’t end up at mainline.
And then we can all sit back and listen to another John Sharp whinge with victim media statement.
When your 50+ year old TREs are all leaving to go to Atlas, you really have to ask yourself why. Perhaps decades of ruling with an iron fist is finally coming home to roost.