I'll take SWP with a grain of salt.
But, if SWP is on the right track, the Taiwan factor begins to look a little like the Falklands factor was for Argentina in '82.
There is some talk about how far behind in deliveries various defense materials are for Taiwan (somewhere around $10 billion US worth) that are delayed due to deliveries to Ukraine, but I am not sure how much noise there is in that complaint, and how much substance.
One difference with the Falklands and Taiwan (besides sheer size and scale) is that there's a reasonably well equipped, and reasonably well trained, armed forces on hand.