EI UK can’t expand without aircraft. As it stands the Dublin fleet will be stretched to the max next summer and may even require another second hand A330 to join. To complicate matters for EI UK, the most ideal aircraft they need is another narrow body for the likes of BOS but the XLR won’t be delivered until Q3 2024 at the earliest.
While the MAN base seems to be maturing quite nicely, loads consistently up on last year, it will now need to compete with DUB for capacity and that will be difficult. The XLR arrivals are its best opportunity as they will allow new additions and free up capacity elsewhere in summer 2025.
It’s just a question of whether Aer Lingus has the patience. I certainly hope they do as the base has shown a lot of promise.