In my ( totally biased) opinion, HKIA will show impressive traffic figures for the next decade and will outgrow DXB.
Four reasons:
1) Competition. Saudia/Ryad and Indian airlines will enter the market. Huge investments on the way, the new airport in Delhi and expansion in Ryad will enable to offer a very similar product, as does Qatar and Turkish already. No hinterland,a too small catchment area of Dubai does not really offer any other growth other than transfers. But the new competition will compete in tourism and finance/business travel as well, if you have only artificial attractions, then anybody can copy it. A mall or man-made beach looks just the same in Ryad, Abu Dhabi or Doha. Finance institutions might prefer Ryad in the future, more capital ( biggest IPO ever) and gigantic investments in new cities in the region (The Line etc).
2) HKIA expansion. It will make it one of the most efficient and modern airports in the world. Shopping/Restaurants/ Asia Expo will offer a world class product.
3) Technology. New aircraft types will offer more and more direct and longer range flights. No stopover required. The A380 on the other side is well beyond its technological peak, it will become increasingly inefficient.
4)Greater Bay integration. High speed train and ferry connections will make HKIA more attractive as a final
destination in the future. The integration with the mainland will intensify, supported by a Pro-Beijing gov, and offer new business and growth opportunities. Hong Kong will be the finance and corporate center of the South of China, and HKIA the main gate.
Last edited by corporal klinger; 16th August 2023 at 08:58.