Airlines not hiring might as well be a sign of a shortage. I know for sure that several airlines did not hire more people earlier this year because they simply had no instructors to train them, nor simulator capacity. A lot of airlines have shortages this summer but agressively hiring now would result in even bigger short term shortages because of the training.
My airline has already started hiring new direct entry FO with TR starting dates as early as september anticipating on shortages for 2024. Especially concidiring a couple of major airlines that will need a lot more people upcoming months resulting in an exodus for LOCOs.