Originally Posted by
SRMman
The recent Nato Summit in Vilnius has once again reminded everyone about Article 5 and thus the impossibility of Ukraine’s membership of Nato until the War ends.
But how or when will the War end? It is clearly not in Russia’s interests to call it a day, knowing that would trigger the one thing they want least – a further expansion of Nato. It also begs the question, what is a “war”, how is it defined? At what point can a “war”, particularly this war, said to be ended?
Ukraine have said that all Russian forces must leave all of Ukraine’s territory, so one assumes that talks about ending the war would not start before then. And that still leaves the not trivial matters of financial reparations, and justice for the war crimes committed, both of which presumably Ukraine would insist on being addressed to its satisfaction.
So, going back to my question what would constitute an end to the war, would it just be an agreed ceasefire? To what extent does Nato have to be satisfied that the war has ended, and thus be able to invite Ukraine in? I fear there is a very long way to go with this one.
A possibility that may well be a probability:
Weapons and ordnance supply from NATO and friends dwindles to a point where increasing Orc production creates either a political crisis among Ukr friends or a battlefield crisis.
"We are not Amazon", and none of our governments are as well motivated as Putin, excluding Ukr, Poland and the Baltics.
A non-event 2023 counter-offensive might prompt some NATO anxious stock-taking and some too-late action.
I hope that I am wrong. ...... the above ends the war with the nominally triumphant Bear licking its wounds and NATO in a blame game.