Last year the UK MoD published a policy paper
The UK’s Defence Contribution in the High North which clearly has a forward deployment view talking about the GIUK gap and presence in the Arctic.
The Royal Navy has the capability to project force using a variety of assets in the High North, dependent on the location, season, and threat, including Littoral capabilities. The Defence Command Paper announced major investments in a new generation of Anti-Submarine Warfare frigates and support shipping, enabling us to project UK force into the High North, and ensuring our freedom to operate in the North Atlantic. Additionally, the UK will maintain an ability to operate under the Arctic ice. The Royal Navy is investing heavily in military data gathering capabilities for use in all environments, to better understand the High North underwater environment, protect our underwater critical national infrastructure and improve our ability to detect threats in the High North. These include the purpose-built Ice Patrol Ship HMS Protector, and the new Multi-Role Ocean Surveillance capability announced in the 2021 Defence Command Paper.
The Army has increased its cold weather training, including as part of its enhanced Forward Presence deployment in Estonia, where Army cold weather doctrine has been tested and refined alongside the Estonian Defence Forces. Army exercising with JEF partners, including Finland, Norway, and Sweden, enhances its cold weather capabilities, building on Royal Marine and Joint Helicopter Command expertise in the High North.
The Royal Air Force has the capacity to rapidly deploy and operate in the High North. The Royal Air Force’s fleet of nine P-8A Maritime Patrol Aircraft, as well as F35 Lightning II, including aboard HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, will contribute to the UK’s capabilities in the region. New opportunities exist following the procurement of three E7 Wedgetail aircraft and the Protector RG Mk1, which enters service in 2024. Both will further contribute to the UK’s capabilities and support our enhanced situational awareness in the region. Longer-term, MOD will exploit the current and future opportunities offered by space technologies and UK industrial strength to meet Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) requirements, as well as identifying opportunities for collaboration with industry and international partners where appropriate. We will leverage the additional 10-year, £1.4Bn investment in the Defence Space Portfolio to address our National requirements, including for the High North. Especially pertinent is the £970M additional investment in cutting edge space-based ISR. This has the potential for a ‘Responsive Space Launch’ capability, which would enable launch from the UK and British Overseas Territories.
Mind you, how much survives the refresh and the next general election is anyone's guess.