Originally Posted by
SplineDrive
The difficulty in certifying a fly by wire system and the autonomy required, in an FAA environment, I think has been grossly underestimated.
And right there we have the crux of the issue. GROSSLY underestimated. You got that right! These LSD-induced eVTOL fantasies of pilot-less drones flitting about urban areas *below* the tops of the skyscrapers and landing on rooftops or ground-level drone-pads are just silly. First of all, they neglect to factor in the perhaps insurmountable hurdles that will be put in place by the FAA (here in the U.S., anyway). The inability to autorotate may be able to be overcome, but as SplineDrive notes, the FAA *will* require a level of redundancy that may not be possible. Batteries can malfunction; I can see the FAA requiring an extra battery for redundancy. The thought of an emergency parachute is simply laughable. And let's not even talk about crashworthiness! This is 2023, not 1953.
Proponents of these little proof-of-concept vehicles never talk about other things as well. To accommodate four (or so) passengers who don't know much about aircraft and don't care, the hardware (door handles and such) will have to be really heavy-duty, not flimsy like an Enstrom or R-22 door. Passengers are going to want creature comforts - you know, comfortable seats, a nicely-appointed interior...heat in the winter and a/c in the summer. How much weight does that add up to? Can these little eggshells be scaled-up that far? I'm sure that battery technology will improve...but...really? Oh yeah, what happens if a passenger gets airsick and pukes? (Think it won't happen?) Will the drone be able to detect it? Either way, that machine goes out of service.
The
idea of autonomous eVTOL drones zooming around crowded cities is enticing, I'll grant you that. And I don't want to be so arrogant and pessimistic as to say it will *never* happen... But it won't, let's be honest. Not as long as the FAA governs things that fly in the air, and not as long as the public are as risk-averse as they are today. But perhaps I'm wrong! Perhaps people will become *less* risk-averse in the future. Yeah, that could happen...not.