Why Sudan Matters to their neighbor: Egypt.
The linked article has a good summary of the ripple effects of this six week long civil war spilling over into Egypt. (The flood of refugees isn't the only problem Egypt is facing). Their relationships with Ethiopia and UAE, and their Nile water resource problems, inform how they respond what's going on in Sudan.
Some Salient points extracted from the linked article:
JUNE 1, 2023, 7:00 AM |
Mahmoud Salem- ... approximately 1,000 people have died, and more than 300,000 people have fled the country, with at least 120,000 of them crossing the border into Egypt, where 4 million other Sudanese nationals already reside.
- As Sudan’s neighbor, Egypt will arguably be the foreign country most directly affected by the continued conflict—particularly those effects created by the impending economic and refugee crises. Though it has thus far avoided backing either military and has not been involved in ongoing cease-fire talks, Egypt now finds itself in a bind: It does not have the resources or the desire to fight a war, yet it cannot afford to ignore the situation any longer.
- ... given the SAF’s own issues with Ethiopia, Egypt sees it as a crucial political ally in its dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Nile River, which threatens to disrupt Egypt’s strategic water interests and delicate agricultural sector...militarily backing the SAF would put Egypt directly in conflict with the RSF—the favored militia of the United Arab Emirates... the UAE is Egypt’s last financial backer in the Gulf. Despite their otherwise fraught relationship, Egypt needs UAE support if it wants to survive financially.
- {related article} ... Sudan’s War Might Not Stay in Sudan A power struggle in the capital, Khartoum, could destabilize neighboring Chad and impact the entire Sahel region.
Mahmoud Salem is a Berlin-based writer and analyst whose research focuses on the intersections of geopolitics, economics, and misinformation campaigns. Twitter:
@sandmonkey
The full article is here:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/01...ons-ceasefire/
Are the suggestions on "what to do" in the article realistic? Maybe, and maybe not.
Why does all of this matter to Military Aviation?
If the current conflict goes on, some sort of multinational intervention is likely, and supporting air assets will be at a premium.
And guess where most of those will come from, eh?