Originally Posted by
Cautious Optimist
So if new start-ups just aren't feasible full stop, are we just supposed to whittle down to maybe a flag carrier, a couple of low costs, and zero regional operators as recessions and global crisis' slowly confine airlines to the history books?
The issue is that much of the boom in aviation over the last 2 decades or so has been fuelled by cheap fares. That was the selling point for the likes of RYR and EZY over the legacy carriers. However cheap fares are now simply a standard expectation for a large portion of consumers. You only have to look at conversations on various airport threads on this forum to see examples of that.
The problem for start ups is that, unless they have extremely deep pockets, it's very difficult for them to compete on price with established carriers because they do have the pockets to engage in a price war - which they will almost certainly win. They have to find some other niche to compete on, but given consumer expectations on price, that's a serious ask. To take Global as an example, their USP appears to be offering superior service, which will presumably come at significantly higher price point. Yes, there will be some people who will pay for that, but an A380 is an awfully big aircraft to fill.