Here we go again! Brandolini’s Law striked again:
The amount of energy needed to refute bs
is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it
In the latest AMA he didn’t promise a flying proto in December. He promised at least a fully finished ground model for the public event. The end of year flying proto assumes zero schedule slippage so it was very clear that would be a bonus, but I’m personally not expecting it.
Progress is incremental. Since last time:
- Tail section composite moulds done (in production techniques) & made one tail section.
- 5th main “monolage” composite structure made, now fully complete with foams, detail, surface finish, lightning mesh, b section pillars, metal inserts. I think 6th underway? Can’t remember.
- Tail ducted fan section now quite thicker. He said it’s 20% better performance than the thin original designs
- Lighting & nose cluster
- Digital cockpit moving to target hardware and some avionics control integrated
- Windscreen bonding trials, and coatings.
- Human machine interface trials (read: validating everything in correct location, and tweaking)
- Gears now all fully made. Some being sent off for testing
- Discussed how maintenance is done mostly accessible from top section of tail
- Engine most sections designs now finalised & frozen. Only one section remains and will be put out for manufacture soon.
- All of the main rotating engine parts have been made once proving it can be done (joins, details, finish, etc). Only production blades to go.
- Explained some detail on efficiency vs cycle life switching to a slotted disk design (fewer blades is less efficient but better life & failure modes), and they managed to get efficiency up 1%.
- Bearings now all made & tested. Explained why he makes his own (cost of “helicopter” tax).
- Explained engine test schedule plan
- Flight control rapid prototypes
- Production facility delayed again; reading between the line it looks like politics, and more red tape (noise & environmental stuff). He said he isn’t commenting publicly yet, but won’t be held up by this. Which means he has several backup options but it isn’t appropriate to comment which could prejudice PlanA. Seems sensible.
- Discussion on production engineer factory plans, timelines for training, producing spares inventory first, scaling etc.
- No details on rotor yet due IP on “clever packaging”, but looks like it’s being worked on.
- Some discussions on insurance. He will do at least the hull which he can make a lot cheaper than it costs us. Wants to make GA ownership affordable again.
It’s materialising before our eyes at a rate of knots. I believe some people will be eating their hats next year.
830 orders.
Yep non-refundable deposits are booked up as revenue. I’m not seeing why this is a problem. People like me put down $70k risk to secure a $300k discount. That’s a 400% return on what I see as really only a risk in delays, not the fundamental product. I’m happy to wait.
People who want zero risk will pay full price and have to wait 2-3+ years longer. I’m not seeing the issue here; it’s an individual decision. The data on progress is all public. It’s literally an “AMA” ask anything, and he answers everything including financials, timelines, risk, schedules, and current pain points. If you don’t like risk, then just wait. It’s not your money he’s spending. It’s ours, so not sure why the crabbiness (pun intended!)