A quick run through some of the Whitehall gossip about the White Paper from ORAC's link
Late Friday/this Monday have been v interesting as regards the quiet, background briefs that have been going the rounds about the Defence Command White Paper, especially what will happen to the Army.
Top Line: the White Paper will say previous version was absolutely fine... ...all assumptions deductions totally right, Ukraine has changed nothing, because 2021 version had foreseen it!
However, Army White Paper Top Line: the briefings say a cut to 60,000. Yes, the "line to take" is 60,000 - the previous total talked up was 72,000...
...so going from current 80k-ish, 60k would be nearly a 30% cut.
However... I can't remember whether it was "Yes Minister" or "Yes Prime Minister", but one of these had the Whitehall strategy that you leak some dire cut, but when the actual announcement comes, it isn't as bad.
Soooo....While the talk is for a cut of over 20,000 Army troops to 60k, I'm hearing a secondary line which is that the "actual" cut will "only" be to 65,000, so not that bad!
Well, a 20% cut is still pretty heavy - it'd almost look like a punishment beating.
And when other equivalent Western European armies such as France are actively recruiting to grow their forces, a UK cut would look strange. And let's not talk about what the Nordic/Baltic States are doing with their armies' manpower...
Even if the eventual cuts are to "only" 68,000, it'll still be a pretty serious hit to the British Army. And one key issue: if the cut is this heavy, what does this do to what "The Country" expects from the Army?
It's pretty obvious that you cannot expect the same from a 64,000 Army as you do from an 82,000 one. And with all the talk of expanding the Royal Artillery, likely at the expense of the infantry and Royal Armoured Corps, how does this work with a 15-20,000 personnel cut?
One massive problem for
@BritishArmy: it has cut itself off from the wider population, so it can be cut and reduced with very little political downside. When was the last time(s) that the Army actively invited a broad media pool to come and see things?
The Army's "message" has been lacking as the Service doesn't know how to communicate, though it parrots about "information manoeuvre". Well, even if such exists (it doesn't), Andover has been comprehensively out-manoeuvred in the White Paper game, and has seemingly lost, badly. Time will tell, but there is significant preparation of the ground for serious cuts to the Army. I'm not convinced that there will not be some cuts to the other two Services as well - they will just seem lesser ones compared to what could look like a bloodbath for The Khaki.