Originally Posted by
Northsky
I dont post much, but post 2478 gave me some food for thought. In particular the posters concern about what effect Jet2 putting a base in a nearby airport might do to Manchester and how management appears to be incompetent as a result.
I look at it a different way. Manchester historically has been so good at drumming up business that it punches well above its weight for the area it serves. So much so that it has a monopoly to many destinations from the North West/Yorkshire.
Manchester has become so successful that alot of people will put MAN into a search engine before checking their local airport. They book the flight and then drive past their local airport to reach MAN, despite a flight often being available from say LPL or LBA. I've lost count of the times I've asked someone why they didn't fly from LPL when they live much closer, and the response being "Oh I didn't know you could".
To help me illustrate my point, take TFS, Manchester's busiest route in 2022 (and one to be launched by Jet2 at LPL) and compare passenger traffic compared to LBA/LPL
MAN 814,495
LBA 191,476
LPL 71,690
Considering the population of all three metropolitan areas (forget political boundaries) are not vastly different, its clear to see how effective MAN management have been historically in securing business.
Further to this, with Liverpool in particular, the difference in journey times by car from most areas away from these cities is relatively small.
To consider the thoughts in your post, is this not a bit of long overdue rebalancing? For short haul/high demand destinations at least, which is exactly Jet2's core market.
Why should the locals of Leeds/Liverpool trek all the way to Manchester when their own city is certainly large enough and connected enough to sustain a more diverse choice of flights?
Why should airlines put all their eggs in one basket and not have a base at others to trade the two off to get better fees.
To me, the average consumer, I can only see it as a positive that there is more choice. I consider MAN to have enjoyed a near monopoly in the North for too long and a dose of competition is what's needed to benefit the wider public.
I would imagine in an ideal world, the quick selling short haul destinations market would be fairly equal in size from MAN/LBA/LPL, with MAN excelling in the more niche markets and long haul as it is more central to the wider population. The reality is far from that, even with considering all the quirks of the aviation industry (e.g duplicating base costs).
Interesting post.
Absolutely no issue with competition and I'm sure Jet2 negotiated a good rate, I look at the facts based purely from the perspective of my own local airport and their performance. Its clear in my view that they have no intention of expanding the aprons in the short term, they are trying to utilise as many slots off peak as possible hence my comment referencing peaks and troughs but that has to fit the airlines schedules not Manchester's.
Looking at this from another angle, if Manchester had the apron space to overnight 4 additional units would JET2 have even considered Liverpool based on catchment, the answer is simply no. Manchester Airports catchment area quite clearly overlaps. According to SkyVector the distance between both airports is 20.7 miles, unless you live in the City Centre or towards Southport, Manchester Airport is as easy to get to as Liverpool. In terms of airport location yes its a factor but I suspect most families look at price first regardless of convenience. If the airport is an extra hour away but as a family of four you save say £100 each i suspect a family would take the extra commute.
The problem as i see it is that Manchester is now limited to an absolute figure in terms of stand availability , lets say 120 stands max, but over the last few years there has always been a significant number out of action leading to restrictions on capacity and of course growth, my point is that this should have been factored in allowing enough room for airlines to grow and accommodate any restrictions caused by the terminal work in progress.
One would struggle to see what the plan is, as the work in progress appears to be never ending. Even when the next pier is built and T2 is finished they are going to have to rely on the stands surrounding T1 and T3 for remote parking, it will be fantastic to extend T2 again and indeed build a large bussing apron over there, but that is another 5 years worth of disruption and is years away, how do you demolish those buildings whilst retaining the parking space in the short term ? If the maximum number of available stands is say 90 it will STILL be 90 5+ years hence and possibly longer. The forecast capacity for the terminal on completion 2025 was 35million pax a year, where did that come from, did the modelling take into account cause and effect ?
Forecasts for this year are 24m, I'm struggling to see how MAG get anywhere near the 35m figure unless every slot is utilised say 18 hours a day. 0600 -2400 from here on in.
Post pandemic every airport and indeed airline is seeing record growth, most are back to 2019 levels and higher, but at Manchester that appears to be being choked off by lack of operational capabilities which I feel should have been factored in.
If Liverpool benefits so be it, I say bloody good good luck to them, but I'm sceptical its down to Liverpool's performance and more to do with restrictions at Manchester, at this rate Liverpool will be laughing all the way to the bank for years as they cream off more and more displaced aircraft.