Originally Posted by
Xeptu
We in the west have been withdrawing from China since Covid broke out, there are some companies like apple that cannot withdraw quickly, because all of it's assembly platforms, not to be confused with manufacturing, are in China. I would be surprised if any of the big names are still in China beyond 2026.
When our company pulled out it was because China banned our products because our government had the audacity to ask for an investigation into the origin's of covid. It hurt, it hurt alot we had to mothball, decommission or repurpose about 30% of our infrastructure. Two years on they want to trade again, well no chance in hell, we will not invest again regardless of what our government has to say about that. There are many companies doing the same globally, building their infrastructure back home. China is in trouble, Huge, we can see it happening already, by 2026 China will be lucky to survive in it's current economy and it doesn't have anything else to trade, unlike Russia.
Really great to hear of an Oz (I'm guessing?) company that sees through the BS of the China boosters. Good on you. What industry?
It is about time we got serious about bringing back steel and aluminium processing to Oz too. With our abundant wind and solar potential it's the biggest thing we could do for carbon neutralisation, and great for the economy and regional Oz.
I agree with you on China's near-term prospects. I find Peter Zeihan's conclusions there very persuasive - they're stuffed. And really, the way they treat the international community and global trade network on which their whole economy was based, they've only got themselves to blame. As others here have suggested, their best bet is probably to wait until Russia collapses following the Ukraine fiasco and pick over the pieces, starting with Outer Manchuria. A lot more realistic for them than Taiwan, and gives them access to some of what Russia's got and they need.