Originally Posted by
ORAC
All one has to do is have 2 blogs with different made up names. Then you make opposite predictions in each one. Whichever one turns out right, you hang on to that and delete the other. If you do that comprehensively enough you can end up with a blog that looks like it has a perfect record of prediction. :-). I'm not saying truly that this is what this blogger is doing but more that of all the bloggers out there there can potentially be one that is repeatedly correct by random chance and that the end of their run of success could come at any moment - we cannot automatically believe that their success is due to predictive ability.
OTOH I think the use of a bomb is interesting and I really wondered why they did that - when you think that there are so many windows around. The window would seem to me to be the tool of someone who knows they won't be pursued or caught (i.e. they're in control) whereas a bomb seems like the choice of someone who is taking a big chance. It's a sign of instability, so there's something in that.