Originally Posted by
JW95
I'm a little sceptical about Air Asia. The route landscape from LON-KUL today is far different to that to when D7 last served STN, and later, LGW 10 years ago, in that there are far more connections and airline choice available to passengers should they wish to travel to Kuala Lumpur. I remember that towards the end of D7's time at LGW, the price difference compared to travelling on a full service carrier was not that big compared to Air Asia fares, and naturally, more people would have been tempted to fly those carriers (e.g. EK, QR et al.) on a long haul journey instead. Plus they would be going up against MH's twice daily service from LHR, that offers a solid A350 product. So I am really unconvinced Air Asia will re-enter the London market any time soon, especially with their A339s not arriving until at least 2026.
I do however see Cathay Pacific returning to LGW once the LHR operation is back up to peak capacity- and progress towards achieving this is already increasing, with CX offering up to the pre-covid 5 rotations per day from April. On the occasions I flew LGW-HKG with Cathay, the ground staff mentioned that this had become a good route for the airline since it was re-launched in 2016, with frequent overbooking occurring in the summer months. When this will happen, I'm not sure, but I'd reasonably bet that CX will likely look to re-introduce LGW at some stage next year.
Air Zimbabwe - previously served LGW on-and-off over the years. Given their financial situation, I'm unsure whether they are in a position to re-open LGW.
Ghana Airlines - I think has previously served LGW many years ago, are more likely to come to Gatwick over LHR.
Re your statement AI having left major Indian cities like BLR and CCU without a direct London link.
To the best of my knowledge, AI actually do fly to BLR from LHR. Apart from the 4 (mainly VFR-oriented) routes they did transfer to LGW effective today, the only direct route they dropped (ex-LHR) and haven't reinstated is HYD. (HYD like BLR is a centre for the IT and other high tech industries in the Deccan peninsula of southern India). The 3 weekly pairs of slots AI's LHR-HYD service was using at the LHR end have been repurposed to expand AI's LHR-DEL schedule I believe. DEL is going to be India's (and the entire subcontinent's) first global hub. Following the completion of the merger between UK and AI some time next year, the UK slots at LHR (I believe for a daily LHR-DEL and a daily LHR-BOM service although not commonly timed) should then become available for use by AI as well, allowing them to boost LHR-BOM frequency to 3 daily round-trips and LHR--DEL to up to 4 daily round-trips.) If AI wants to realise its stated ambition of [re]capturing 30% of all international air traffic from and to India, the best way to do this is to transform itself into the 4th global super connector (after EK, QR and TK), even if this risks bringing AI into open conflict with other Star Alliance members, especially LH who still seem to think that the whole world owes them a living and should therefore be compelled to feed their hubs at FRA and MUC. If AI will go down the global super connector route with DEL taking on the role of its global super hub, I believe that medium-term, AI will complement LHR-DEL with LGW-DEL and possibly STN-DEL as well, just like EK has simultaneously served LHR as well as LGW from its global super hub in DXB for at least the past 30 years (now replicating this at STN as well), probably starting with LGW-DEL first, possibly as soon as 2025, initially with a single daily service, to which a 2nd (and eventually a 3rd) daily rotation could be added subsequently to tie in with AI's banks of connecting flights at its DEL super hub. Doing this at LGW before replicating at STN would also make connercial sense as AI will already have a station at LGW, where additional activity will help spread overheads over a bigger revenue base. In addition to linking LGW to AI's (hopefully) forthcoming DEL super hub, from my perspective, there is also a solid business case for adding a daily LGW-BLR service given the number of IT professionals hailing from BLR working in various companies in LGW's catchment, not only incl. Crawley (and the town's main business area in Manor Royal), but in Horsham (primarily at the Royal Sun Alliance global headquarters), East Grinstead, Horley, Brighton and Croydon) and who until now have been using EK (to a lesser extent BA / QR) ex-LGW to "commute" to / from BLR, changing flights in DXB / DOH an route. A daily LGW-BLR service complementing the existing LHR-BLR service would also give AI 2 daily LON-BLR flights. This frequency could eventually be further expanded (from both LHR - slot availability permitting - and LGW) should AI choose to make BLR its main regional hub for southern India as well as its 2nd global hub given its stated desire to establish multiple hubs across India as also a "geopolitical insurance policy" aganst Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines at any given time as efficient flight routings to all destinations west of DEL do require the use of Pakistani airspace, which isn't the case as far as BLR (as well as BOM, HYD and MAA and any other southern and southwestern Indian cities are concerned). And once Mumbai's 2nd airport at Navi Mumbai (New Bombay) is up and running it could become AI's 3rd global hub as it won't face the physical restrictions of BOM - primarily that like LGW it is configured for one-runway operation as its 2 runways intersect each other and therefore can't be used simultaneously, a constraint not conducive to operating an omnidirectional global hub as BA's past experience at LGW attests. While CCU could plausibly be turned into AI's regional northeastern hub, Kolkata, the city that was the original capital of the British Raj when it was known as Calcutta, is - by Indian standards - an economic backwater compared with the likes of Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, the National Capital Region (which includes Delhi) and even Chennai (the former main southern administrative centre of the Raj when it was still known as Madras).
On a different but LGW-related note, another plausible long-haul prospect for LGW in my opinion is Premia Air, a new(ish?) South Korean hybrid airline somewhat similar to Bamboo Air of Vietnam (which started flying to LGW last year, from both Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi). Like Bamboo, Premia uses Boeing 787-9s on its long-haul routes and has already started flying tgese aircraft to FRA (its first European destination).