US/Canada ?
Read this forum for a while. Wanted to post my thoughts on the future of the US/Canada at MAN. Realistically there may not be much expansion at all for the next 3 seasons, although this is everything that I think is even remotely possible for the next years down the line. Optimistic, I know most of these probably won't happen..
American: Understandably not here. 767, 757, a330 decimated through covid + 787 delays .. PHL i anticipate to return S24 at the absolute earliest if they get more 788s .. Perhaps even with the EIUK codeshare they may opt to get rid of the very strange DFW-DUB route (focus DUB codeshare traffic through ORD?) and reposition that 788 to PHL-MAN? Who knows. Once they start getting some 321XLRs.. CLT would be neat especially with that meeting & partnership with North Carolina signed a few weeks ago.. ORD and JFK would be very nice additions although it may cannibalise with Aer Lingus on these routes.
Delta: Obvious serious lack of ambition from the VS/DL cohort anywhere outside of LHR/EDI from the start of covid up until now. I think ATL will come at some point (maybe even W23??) on A330, taking on the route from VS who have obvious issues, with the route being suspended for months, and with the new entry of Virgin into Skyteam, think BOS coming eventually (S24 to counter the inevitable EI launch?) whether it be Virgin or Delta. JFK could always happen but I feel that is down to what Virgin do. Other delta hubs; SEA a possibility? Was served by TCX for a while.
Aer Lingus: The absolute strongpoint when it comes to expansion @MAN. Once they get some more of those 321s I see the inevitable launch of BOS, ORD, IAD, with their CEO stating Manchester will see 'many folds of growth'. It could be that EI grab some A330neos at some point, which could free up even more A330-300s for MAN, and those 321s could go towards expanding EIUK at other airports, GLA and BHX being the most likely in my opinion. Distant shots at West Coast short term, although that would probably mean JFK reverting to 321 ops for a while. YYZ also possible with 321.
Virgin: As stated in the Delta bit, serious lack of ambition as of recent. Obviously the losses of 340 and 744s were hugely hit, I mean it made them leave LGW entirely, we're lucky that they haven't consolidated to just LHR yet. Also, as previously said, I think the ATL route will swap over to Delta pretty soon, which would free up a based aircraft & could realise the dream of a West Coast route once again, namely one of LAS/LAX/SFO.. More on the West Coast, I think those are more Virgin routes than Delta routes, but who knows?
United: EWR feels a given for S24. Of course we all expected it for this S23 season, obviously it was held back. I believe the conditions will be right for a daily EWR service perhaps with a mix of 757 and 767 throughout the year. ORD and IAD could happen maybe a few seasons down the line as a summer seasonal or something. With this huge order of Dreamliners I feel that routes such as LAX and SFO, while being highly unlikely for a few years at least, aren't totally out of the picture for 4/5 years down the line, especially if Virgin fail to capitalise on these open routes
JetBlue: Very likely addition, probably 2024 too, after AMS i can see Lisbon maybe Dublin then Manchester. Daily BOS and JFK on A321.
Air Canada: Why the hell aren't they back at year-round yet? If it helps, they're going back to daily A330 on YYZ-MAN for this summer. I don't see anything else from AC.
Air Transat: Kudos to them for keeping YYZ year round. Believe they are increasing frequencies this summer to 6 per week, according to ACL. A330 year round would be nice, YUL on A321neo possible? There isn't much in way of demand for Montreal, but then again something like 3x weekly seasonal could be something they'd try.
WestJet: Launching Edinburgh from Calgary this summer. Feel as if that will suck up quite a good bit of the demand for a possible MAN route as well. Time will tell.
Others: Jet2 could be a candidate for EWR once the 321neos start coming online, maybe even with the leased 330s. Norse Atlantic I feel will go bust soon but JFK, FLL would be nice. BA is distinct - I see them basing a few 320s at MAN anyway for Euroflyer operations, perhaps they could send a couple of Gatwick config 777s to test the waters on routes like BGI that could even be taken over from EI. Breeze of the USA for some A220 route into a smaller East Coast US airport, they have stated their ambitions of transatlantic to a 'regional airport in England'.
Overall, 75% of these routes may never happen. But I think the deep sinkhole that has opened for TATL at MAN these past years means that there will be nothing but growth - so it doesn't hurt to be a little optimistic. A realistic view however? United-EWR/Delta-ATL/Aer Lingus-ORD+BOS for S24 would start to fill this hole. Let's hope that there will be a meaningful recovery of this decimated part of the network for the next few years ...