Originally Posted by
dr dre
At the moment the plan is the oldest 737s are replaced by the first 321X, and it looks as if they'll go to 24 years. So the next 321X order will only arrive post 2027, as the 738 fleet isn't all that old. The latest is only 9 years old, and they'll only confirm the replacements when needed.
PER-DPS hasn't been a mainline route ever (well at least this century). QL (Alliance) is only doing DRW-DPS, DRW-SIN has apparently been canned. So no QL taking QF international flying, and I wouldn't like to see the reliability of those admittedly old A320s on international routes. May also have EDTO issues.....
At the end of the day I think supply and demand will limit the possibility of the various QL entities expanding to the point where they become the new mainline. What we do know is, even accounting for retirements and the pilots required for the 12x A350s, that mainline will have a few hundred pilots more than they have now in 4 years time. What this is for is still unknown, but the number of excess crew being hired is enough to crew about 30 more SH or 10 LH aircraft, beyond what exists now.
Maybe. I hope you're right but I'll maintain my pessimistic outlook.
Seniority is back over 2700 as it was pre covid when they were expecting the last 3 787s to arrive.
The difference is -2 a380s and -2 a330s and minus whatever 747s we had a few years ago.
Sure, the a321XLR will drive training/recruitment as a lot will be in the training system, as will the a350 as that's in addition to what LH has now. But that training aside, and 12x a350s aside, the remainder of it is just to fill the large retirements.
After management at the top change hands later this year, maybe by this time 2024 we will know what's the longer term goal, especially with more potential a321s or a330 replacements. I'm not holding my breath. It will be a trickle of planes and FlightRadar24 will continue to show nothing but foreign carriers dominating the skies in and out of Australia.
11 787s are all that have arrived to mainline over... what, 15 years? 3 more to come. Wow. Big numbers.
Not one plane has come to mainline that AJ has ordered. And until only a few months ago - not one was ordered under him either.
My question, and maybe you can answer it for me as I actually don't know - how many 747s did we retire since... say 2010? How many 767s did we retire in the last 15 years?