Originally Posted by
soseg
Define soon.
You let me know when they order 1:1 A321XLR against the retiring 738.
At the moment the plan is the oldest 737s are replaced by the first 321X, and it looks as if they'll go to 24 years. So the next 321X order will only arrive post 2027, as the 738 fleet isn't all that old. The latest is only 9 years old, and they'll only confirm the replacements when needed.
Network A320 out west seats the same amount as a 737. It's doing a lot of traditional mainline RPT routes. Rumoured to soon be doing Perth-Bali. And they won't be the first QantasLink outfit to be doing international jet routes. That's already started.
PER-DPS hasn't been a mainline route ever (well at least this century). QL (Alliance) is only doing DRW-DPS, DRW-SIN has apparently been canned. So no QL taking QF international flying, and I wouldn't like to see the reliability of those admittedly old A320s on international routes. May also have EDTO issues.....
At the end of the day I think supply and demand will limit the possibility of the various QL entities expanding to the point where they become the new mainline. What we do know is, even accounting for retirements and the pilots required for the 12x A350s, that mainline will have a few hundred pilots more than they have now in 4 years time. What this is for is still unknown, but the number of excess crew being hired is enough to crew about 30 more SH or 10 LH aircraft, beyond what exists now.