Originally Posted by
FlyGatwick
My guess (apart from Air Asia X as already rumoured) is as follows:
Riyadh Air - if this new airline, which as of now exists on paper only, wants to turn its vision to become a challenger to global super connectors EK and QR based out of Riyadh, it won't be able to realise this ambition unless it starts flying to "secondary" cities and airports (in cities served by multiple airports such as London and New York). So, I wouldn't be surprised them announcing a LGW-RUH route. Realistically, however, I expect this to be a medium-term ambition to be realised over a 1-2 year time frame. In the initial phase to be set in motion later this year, I would expect SV to transfer its existing routes like its 3× daily LHR-RUH service to be transferred to Riyadh Air as this is probably easiest to achieve under existing bilateral restrictions, taking into account as well that the LH's and AF-KL's of this world, which never pass up an opportunity to blame EK (and QR) for all their woes (incl. self-inflicted wounds) are unlikely to be delighted at having to face even more competition for their bread-and-butter 6th freedom traffic.
Staying on the topic of more super connectors coming to LGW, I wouldn't be surprised to see AI launch a daily LGW-DEL service within a similar timeframe as I anticipate for Riyadh Air as there is talk that AI wants to turn DEL into its (and India's) first genuine global hub airport (with full support from the Indian government, who is very keen on this). After all, they have to put the 500 or so aircraft they recently ordeed from Airbus and Boeing to good use. Should AI succeed in its ambitious transformation plan under Campbell Wilson's stewardship and go down the EK / QR / TK global super connector route, I would also expect them to build up frequencies on LGW-DEL over time to at least 2 daily round-trips to maximise connecting opportunities and transfer traffic flows at their DEL hub, just as EK has done on LGW-DXB over the past 20 years (and like QR seems to be doing now in partnership with its oneworld alliance partner BA). The interesting question here is, should AI choose to go down that route, when they'll have the mother of all bust-ups with their Star Alliance partner LH, which doesn't like the idea of its hubs at FRA and MUC being bypassed, especially by a partner-turned-rival from within its own alliance, as was the case when TK decided a few years back to turn itself into a global super connector, with its connections at IST quickly surpassing anything LH could offer via FRA / MUC. On a different but related note re potential future expansion of AI at LGW, I can envisage AI launching a daily LGW-BLR service in the not too distant future given that BLR is the Indian equivalent of Silicon Valley (sometimes locally referred to as Silicon Plateau as the city sits on a plateau of approx 900 m above sea level in the Deccan region of southern India), with a large number of natives working in many of the towns and cities in the LGW catchment, who regularly "commute" between LGW and BLR, currently mostly on EK via DXB or (to a lesser extent) BA / QR via DOH.
United - Given that Z0 has just announced a while raft of transatlantic routes to the US, incl. to the UA hub at IAD, it wouldn't surprise me at all if UA announces a daily seasonal LGW-IAD summer service next year and possibly a daily LGW-EWR summer seasonal service as well as a competitive response (the latter especially should Z0 decide to double its own frequency on LGW-JFK to 2 daily round-trips next summer. Initially, I would expect such UA services to be operated with already very long-in-the-tooth 757s, but then quickly to transition to a A321LR, possibly as soon as summer 2025 (should these routes prove to be successful). On a similar note, I'm also expecting DL to launch a daily LGW-BOS summer seasonal service (in addition to its daily LGW-JFK service launching on April 10) to compete wth B6's daily (year-round) LGW-BOS service (in addition to LGW-JFK), probably initially using 757s as well (which could also be used in winter in place of the larger 767 used in summer, thus turning it into a year-round route). As well, I expect BA at some point to revive a daily, year-round LGW-MIA service as a competitive response to Z0 entering the South Florida - UK market via FLL.
Azul - This airline, which this year is launching a 3x or 4x ORY-VCP year-rojķservice, may wish to complement this with a similar VCP-LGW service, possibly starting in summer 2024.
Qantas - provided that QF wants to keep its daily LON-SIN-SYD service following the launch of the first-ever all-year round, daily non-stop LHR-SYD and LHR-MEL services from winter 2025-'26 (for which QF probably needs the LHR slots currently used by the one-stop LHR-SYD A380 service), this service could be transferred to LGW, probably using a 787-9 instead of an A380, operating from the North Terminal, where QF premium passengers, who still prefer the one-stop option, can make use of the EK lounge.
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This is a very interesting list of possible airlines you have flagged up here. I think that with the ongoing (indefinite?) delays with the 3rd runway at LHR, my guess is that we will begin to see more route announcements long-haul-wise from LGW soon, as there will come a point (perhaps already?) where LHR simply cannot accommodate anything further - we have already begun to see evidence of this with Air India splitting operations between LHR and LGW.
Qantas would be a very interesting one. I don't think they've served LGW before? With 'project sunrise' on the horizon starting 2025, they may have no choice but to relocate the existing 1-stop service to Sydney via Singapore to LGW in order to dedicate their LHR slot portfolio to the more non-stop London-Australia services. Of course there is the argument that a move to LGW may prove more costly to QF, due to the need to set up a new London station, recruit ground staff/handling contracts etc. They may even just decide to ditch the LON-SIN route entirely in favour of an all non-stop London-Australia service. In the past, QF use to fly to Australia from LHR via BKK and HKG, and later, DXB. Now, only SIN remains.
Air India - completely second your comments RE. their future expansion at LGW. With the enormous aircraft order they've just placed, I can see them launching an LGW-DEL service further down the line that supplements the existing LHR service.