PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - $s slide cutting pay by up to 25% in Middle East
Old 14th Jan 2004, 21:40
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angels

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Hi ferris. IMHO - The reason for no cut in interest rates is relatively straightforward.

Inflation -- the ECB's main remit -- even at a time of low growth in the main euro zone economies, is still up at just over two percent. The ECB target is 2.0 pct. Central banks usually don't lower interest rates when inflation is above target.

The U.S. will continue to have a benign neglect policy until their massive budget deficit begins to get smaller. IE The dollar must fall to a level where imports begin to contract and exports expand.

The trouble is, China is one of the biggest exporters to the U.S. and the yuan is pegged (loosely) to the dollar. It means the euro zone suffers. China's imports remain at a similar US dollar price, the euro zone's don't (unless the exporters trim their profit margins).

Intervention is lessl ikely because of the political ructions it would cause. The U.S. as I said is happy with an easing dollar. They wouldn't be too happy if the euro zone jumped in to buy dollars and sell euros. This will be discussed at the G7 meet next month in February, rest assured.

Cheers.

Sorry if this isn't too clear but I'm fairly busy at the moment. Can add deets later if you wish.
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