Originally Posted by
GreenXCode
Quite a few ideas here. Firstly, AEGIS cruisers and Type 45s r perfect for Black Sea AD, depends upon political signalling-I’d stick an NFZ over Crimea and ‘politically intend to extend’ in view of this ‘tactical aberration.’ Probably FL300_FL500, lower from the colour of the video. Speed 220kts so well achievable by SU27. He was too busy losing visual and dumping fuel to dump flap; drone was not (and can never be) aggressive c/w what SU27 can do. Highly likely fuel was to interfere with sensors - did a nice flyby of a Type 42 in the 80s with fuel dump; did not like the paint bill after the fact. ROE has nothing to do with risk at the tactical level; almost certain ROE on both sides is to prevent WW3.
There is less than zero chance of the US trying to impose a no fly zone. They will let Ukraine loose before that would even enter a conversation. This is a proxy war. There is no way the west gets sucked in to a conflict they initially thought would last weeks. And truthfully don’t really care about the outcome other than giving the Russians a good dressing down.