If you zoom in on your still image ....the first digit is not a '1' ....it looks like the standard coded serial for the US
I'm a new account so I can't post images. If you go to the original source on Telegram (Fighterbomber) for the uncompressed video it clearly shows the number is 294. It's MQ-9 15-4294 in the video if we fill the blanks between known serials. The uncompressed video doesn't look nearly as odd either. I think the video is very much real. Apparently the drone was downed around 7AM local time, which would mean the drone in the video wasn't shot down that day judging by the lighting.