PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - $s slide cutting pay by up to 25% in Middle East
Old 14th Jan 2004, 17:30
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angels

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Join Date: Feb 2001
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Don't be so sure, SirKitt.

As well as foreign exchange being my line of my business I also worked in Singapore and Hong Kong for some eight years, so I know all about the effect of forex fluctuations on ex-pat salaries (I was in Singapore during the Asian currency crisis -- that hurt)!

3-1/2 or so years ago the dollar was overvalued. The euro was at a low of around $0.82 having floated at $1.16 odd. Now that the euro is trading at near record highs of $1.27 it is in fact only at it's interpolated long-term average!

While the U.S. continues to run a billion dollar a day trade deficit it needs to attract funds to plug the gap. It's doing that by letting the currency slide -- it's called benign neglect -- despite the fact the politicians keep saying they want a strong dollar.

The current thinking in the market is that the euro could top out at $1.40.

That said, euro zone exporters are starting to feel the pain of the strong euro, so some in the market reckon the ECB may take action. It's started already in that various ECB board members are jawboning, moaning about the rapidity of the euro's rise.

Some, but not many say there could be a euro zone rate cut (at two percent, the euro zone interest rate is double that of the U.S., increasing the euro's attraction to investors). Others say the ECB may directly intervene and sell euros for dollars.

I think either is unlikely just for now.
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