Originally Posted by
jolihokistix
you can see where this is going. Russia is fighting hard to preserve a line on the western edge of a thick and delicious slice of Ukraine that they have taken. Looking a bit like the DMZ in Korea, or the Turkish one in north Syria. Or the Berlin wall. (They might just want to go a little further westward to put the railway line out of UA artillery range.) From the Russian point of view, then, it's all brakes on here, heels dug in, and hold, like in tug-of-war. Until they are ready for the next effort however many years ahead.
Why have they stopped here? They have met an equal and opposite force. A hot force. And stuff is starting to spill back on them. From a purely selfish point of view, this is the moment to negotiate. So Western strategists will have a choice of A or B. A is to follow the Russian scenario, using all the recently-introduced modern weaponry to enforce the Ukrainian side along this new border. B is to stay out of it and follow Ukrainian wishes to push Russian and Wagnerian troops back to the real, internationally-recognized border of Russia. Is a C scenario possible?
The Russians won't stop here, if and when Ukraine pulls back from the military obstacle know as Bakhmut, the Orcs will see no major terrain obstacles between there and Kramatorsk and Sloviansk; both of those cities are in Donetsk Oblast which is important to the Russian propaganda machine. (A possible Ukrainian tactic would then be to fall back in mock chaotic retreat in the hopes Russia would overextend itself on a push north, and allow a Ukrainian offensive to encircle that whole salient.)
The more likely way this is going to go will take advantage of the unique geography offered by the coast of the Sea of Azov. If Ukraine can launch a major offensive soon (which I'm sure they can) it will be toward that coast. And they don't have to make it all the way to the coast to put Russia in a very bad situation. If they can make an advance as far as Melitopol, they could cut the single east/west rail and road connection that passes through that city and leave the entire southwestern part of the Russian held territory (including Crimea) dependent on the Kerch Strait bridge and ferryboats for supplies, and I have no doubt that Ukraine can take down a section of that bridge (the east/west rail line that passes through Bakhmut is unimportant). If Ukraine even reaches so far as Melitopol, Russia will have to abandon Crimea and southern Kherson just as they had to withdraw from northern Kherson. A successful Ukrainian offensive to either Mariupol or Berdiansk would achieve the same. I am certain that Ukraine could hold Bakhmut if they chose to, as I am certain that Ukraine has at least a Brigade held in reserve and another in training.