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Old 2nd Mar 2023, 05:39
  #15052 (permalink)  
jolihokistix
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
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If you look ahead a little, you can see where this is going.

Russia is fighting hard to preserve a line on the western edge of a thick and delicious slice of Ukraine that they have taken. Looking a bit like the DMZ in Korea, or the Turkish one in north Syria. Or the Berlin wall. (They might just want to go a little further westward to put the railway line out of UA artillery range.)

From the Russian point of view, then, it's all brakes on here, heels dug in, and hold, like in tug-of-war. Until they are ready for the next effort however many years ahead.

Why have they stopped here? They have met an equal and opposite force. A hot force. And stuff is starting to spill back on them.

From a purely selfish point of view, this is the moment to negotiate.

So Western strategists will have a choice of A or B.
A is to follow the Russian scenario, using all the recently-introduced modern weaponry to enforce the Ukrainian side along this new border.
B is to stay out of it and follow Ukrainian wishes to push Russian and Wagnerian troops back to the real, internationally-recognized border of Russia.

Is a C scenario possible, or even more realistic, some kind of compromise between the absolutes of A and B?
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