Originally Posted by
henra
No disagreement in that regard from my side. Still it would change the situation for the Russian Forces. For Air Assets it would become even more risky than it already is. For Ground Forces there is also the added risk of precision attack from above (what the current Air assets of UAF can't really do). A F-16 in really low level flight over foreign territory (from RuAF perspective) will still be a major pain for the RuAF to keep in check. It is fast and nimble, small, has a small RCS and can drop various precision guided munitions. Totally different league to what UAF is fielding currently.
Surprisingly Russia's AWACS cover seems to have been lacking. There seems not to be constant cover and with their radar range and the reluctance to fly them close to Ukrainian airspace their effective depth of look into the non- occupied part of Ukraine is very limited (maybe ~100km). And this only circular around its current position. With only 1 or two A50 in theater the coverage will be more than patchy. Close to non- existant. That give close to no warning time and until an alerted fighter could tackle the F-16 it would be long gone. Will there be losses when sending the F-16 to drop pgm over Russian positions? You can bet so. Will RuAF be able to shoot them down in masses? Nope.
Yes, once in a blue moon an F-16 could charge the line and make an effective release, but it would have to be for something critical because that sortie would be a very dangerous undertaking and Ukraine has been conservative when it come to putting their pilots at risk. Maybe the fact that the possibility exists, would have a deterring effect on Russian activity, but I wouldn't count on it. The Russians seem to be tone deaf.
F-16s won't be able to provide ground support without encountering unacceptable losses - pushing back against that fact requires magical thinking. F-16s will have to stay low just like Ukraine's SU-25s do now; low means slow in the thick air: subsonic, a little faster than a SU-25, but not that much. Low and slow doesn't leave the ability to lob standoff weapons. It also doesn't provide boost in range to air to air missiles. Most of the advantages of the F-16 over Mig-29 / SU-25s will be negated by the way they will have to be used; it's the same for any other fourth gen aircraft.
The best the F-16 would bring for Ukraine would be a far better radar, better ECM and rails that can carry things like AMRAAM and better integration with HARM etc. Yes it would be an improvement over what Ukraine has now,
but it would not give them close air support over the battle space.