Originally Posted by
OzzyOzBorn
I'm starting to fear that S23 will be 'just OK' versus S22 rather than stellar. The programmes of the four main short-haul based carriers will be crucial. We need healthy growth from Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 and TUI. On long-haul, we already know that Virgin is a huge disappointment. Aer Lingus UK will upgauge one of the two based aircraft giving a respectable capacity increase. There is only one new name expected for S23 - a modest programme to Turkey by Southwind Airlines (if it goes ahead). And set against that, we've already lost one carrier in the form of FlyBe 2.0.
EasyJet has confirmed an extra based aircraft, taking their total to 21. And I believe that they will all be A320/A20N - no smaller A319's - so they're doing their bit. Jet2 and TUI are both mature operations focusing on leisure routes. I expect them to offer broadly similar programmes to S22. That's good, because they're both big players at MAN, but I don't anticipate substantial growth from them - especially if we're in a recessionary environment. What Ryanair do will be crucial. The most recent ACL report suggested a sixteenth based aircraft (+1) and a substantial increase in programmed flights. But the concern is that the programme on sale so far doesn't tally with that scale of growth, and whilst several other airports (including near neighbours) have seen press releases announcing additional based aircraft, MAN has not. One of my analyst friends [credit: MANFOD] even suggests that the MAN programme currently on sale looks like a reduction from S22. Hope not - but we need a positive announcement from Ryanair VERY SOON. If Ryanair don't grow their Summer programme from MAN, we must expect overall growth to flatline - at a level way below 2019 figures.
Post-covid air travel resumed in earnest in March 2022. Once the February stats are in (should be massively up) we start to see year-on-year comparisons where the difference will be much more marginal. S22 saw a huge wave of travel voucher redemptions as customers finally made long-postponed trips. That has largely worked through the market now. The success of S23 relies on totally new bookings coming in during a period of elevated economic stress.
Taking a broad overview, Southwind Airlines is (potentially) a new but low frequency addition. But more than offsetting that, it looks like Corendon Airlines will operate a smaller programme than last year. There are NO other new names expected at this stage. MAN's scheduled programme to the US is in the pits - covid aside, bumping along at a level not seen here in 20 years. Every Virgin announcement seems to be another cutback, US carriers are focusing on cities favoured by US-domiciled tourists (ie. not MAN). The only modest increase is the Aer Lingus UK upgauge of one based aircraft. SIA frequency to Houston is reduced. TUI serves Florida as before. Capacity to the Caribbean has not been backfilled from the Thomas Cook days, and US-instigated restrictions hitting travel to Cuba have hurt MAN as well. We do have operations to the Caribbean and Mexico, but not on the scale of S19. There is still nothing to Western Canada; Eastern Canada has crept back thanks to Air Transat. Air Canada has once again opted for a minimalist peak-Summer operation only - very underwhelming commitment as usual from them.
Traffic through the Gulf region has been a highlight. The third daily Emirates A380 will boost the stats as it works through the calendar; Qatar Airways looks back to full strength too. Etihad remains once daily; no sign of the second daily being restored. Welcome contributions from Saudia, Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air too. Add to these increased capacity through the twin Istanbul hubs of THY and Pegasus. BUT, BUT ... we mustn't overlook the elephant in the room here. All those passengers who used to board around ten high-density B777's per week to Pakistan have had to be absorbed onto those aforementioned carriers. So whilst the capacity on those Gulf routes is back, the composition of seat sales has changed. There is less capacity available for destinations in SE Asia and Australasia. And don't forget we also had Oman Air pre-covid. No sign of them resuming. Jet Airways was never backfilled; traffic to India must use one-stop options over the UAE or Istanbul as well. Thank goodness for Bangladesh Biman!
Direct services to the Far East are weak. Singapore Airlines is the bright-spot, hopefully thriving and increasing capacity to Singapore (but reducing frequency to Houston). Cathay has been throttled by covid rules only very recently lifted. Hopefully bookings can now come back in volume for them. Hainan - whilst welcome - is a token low-frequency operation, a shadow of its heyday. Rumoured new names such as Thai International and Juneyao won't be seen at MAN in S23.
Ethiopian to Addis via Geneva is a rare gem in MAN's African network. Carriers formerly seen on MAN schedules including EgyptAir, RAM, Air Arabia Maroc and Nouvelair Tunisie should be wooed again by MAG. Likewise El Al to Tel Aviv. EasyJet is doing fantastic business on that route ... just what do El Al need to see before they resume?
Meanwhile, the Baltics and Eastern Europe are overshadowed by the proximity of total war. The tragedy playing out there pushes all aviation concerns discussed here into complete insignificance, but this is the airport forum and we must stick to topic. There is no prospect of services to Moscow or Minsk in the foreseeable, and a resumption of Kyiv (and formerly announced Odesa) services is not feasible.
So I am cautious re S23. Strong points are UAE / Arabian Gulf, Türkiye, Spain. Weak points are USA, Caribbean, Western Canada, Baltics / Ukraine, SE Asia (except Singapore), non-stop Pakistan and India. Also domestic UK, though this is a multi-layered story. Northern Ireland, IOM, Channel Islands, Newquay all look strong. Services to London and (mainstream affordable) Southampton are capacity-starved. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Exeter, Norwich and Southend are amongst recent destinations no longer served from MAN. EasyJet has dropped their two Scottish routes to Aberdeen and Inverness, Loganair continues on these. Scottie Dog's stats show domestic pax down 43.3% year-on-year ... the loss of FlyBe and the reallocation of BA's LHR slots to other routes ex-London account for most of that pain. Though MAN's terrible on the ground offer for domestic - international interline doesn't help one bit. Getting domestic carriers transferred into T2 with state-of-the-art supporting transfer facilities should be an absolute top priority in my view. We need to scrape afew more fossils off Mr Cornish's wallet before its too late to recover this business.
The next ACL update for S23 is expected soon. The first thing I'll be looking at is the Ryanair programme. If it shows a reduction (catastrophe), watch out below. If it's a modest increase, pax totals for MAN as a whole should see cautious progress. Substantial Ryanair increase ... we can dream! But if you're holding out for a boom year, your expectations may need to be scaled back.
Thank you Ozzy for your analysis as to how you see S23 working out. It is a very salient point that the ME carriers have been boosted by the loss of PIA services to MAN compared to pre-covid. Nevertheless, it is one segment of the market where there is cause for optimism compared to the state of affairs to the US.
CX as far as I can tell from their website appear to be operating 4 x weekly in mid - summer. Not the daily we had become used to, but with the tight covid restrictions that were in place for so long and political situation in HK, a reasonable frequency is certainly acceptable.
I agree the programmes of the Big 4 short haul carriers and how well that seat capacity is taken up will be crucial in terms of MAN's performance this coming summer measured against 2019. As regards Ryanair, a brief but by no means detailed analysis did indicate some concern. The initial ACL report showed SHL (Historic) slots of 25,502 for FR and RK combined. If that represented slots from S22, then the latest information available of 28,659 slots at 31 Jan'23 (handback date) is in fact an increase. But that is significantly lower than the 35,064 slots for S23 in the initial ACL report which mentioned an increase in based a/c from 15 to 16 as you say. From a trawl through Ryanair's website for MAN departures on Friday, 14 July, I could only find a maximum of 14 based a/c needed for the first wave. That is only 1 day and there did appear a higher proportion than normal of flights with away based a/c on that particular day. It was also noted that a new route originally planned to Toulouse does not appear in the list of French destinations. So it's very much conjecture at this stage and we'll have to see what the updated ACL report reveals. However, as Ozzy remarks, it is noticeable there has been no official Ryaniar press release regarding MAN's S23 programme so far.
Aviation is of course a competitive industry with airlines fighting for slots at LHR and other airports keen to win new business, and develop growth with new routes and higher frequencies from existing carriers. MAN's relative performance in S23 against 2019 will have to be measured against other airports such as BHX, STN and LGW even though the mix of traffic and passengers at those airports may vary.