Whilst I concede that a few regional pairs may not perform to Bonzas expectations, I'd reckon that quite a few will
Likely that will be the case.
Some of these markets will be getting capacity like they have never seen before.
Tamworth (2019) 189,000 passengers. Bonza adding 78,000 seats per year.
Wellcamp (2019) 120,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 155,000 seats per year
Mildura (2019) 254,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 97,000 seats per year.
Rockhampton (2019) 712,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 213,000 seats per year.
Sunshine Coast 1.2m....Bonza adding 750k seats.
Many of these regional areas have actually being going backward in the last decade with passenger numbers. Some of these areas have had heavy passenger drops within the last decade: Mackay -25%, Townsville FLAT, Gladstone -40%, Rockhampton -20%, Mildura FLAT, Newcastle FLAT, Albury -5%.
A few regional areas which have grown over the last decade are Cairns (+20%), Hobart (+20%), Byron (+30%), Proserpine (+40%)
I think Cairns is a missed opportunity for Bonza, certainly is a very popular centre especially with Chinese tourists. Should have done a base up that way, traffic numbers look quite good once you dive into the data. Tiger had about 800,000 seats per year at its peak into Cairns, similar number to what Bonza are adding to the Sunshine Coast market.