I hear your points.
I dont think post 103 is showing the actual track unless they have access to a much longer video or FR24 coverage.
The video I saw only shows effectively base leg and I commented at the time it was rather close in, measured on google maps its about 2K give or take a bit.
There is high ground to the north and to the west so limiting how large a circuit can be made.
The downwind leg could have been extended a little thus making the turn to final less than 90 degrees.
Looking on google earth 3D gives a really good perspective from the old airfield to the new and location of the gorge.
They were nowhere close to making the turn to final on 12.
Look on the video for a road running top to bottom with a distinct right kink in it, then get the same perspective on google earth and you can see how close in they were and late in turning.
I flattened the perspective a bit so you can see the new airport.
https://earth.google.com/web/@28.201...9.58734423t,0r
and this video(for easy reference) at 7secs
See how long it will be before they release info from CVR/FDR