As usual...when a discussion gets to this point where we discuss Risk, Probability, Chance, Luck, and even Fate......I suggest folks read "Fate Is The Hunter" by Ernest Gann.
Despite his writing about his experiences prior to and during WWII flying Transport Airplanes, his is an insight and wisdom that still applies today.
I wish I had a Leather bound copy of that Tome as it would be right next to some other books I gain inspiration and wisdom from when reading from them.
Short version is there are risks, real risks, imagined risks, reasonable risks, un-necessary risks, and un-acceptable risks in aviation.
The trick is to figure out what they are and which one you are dealing with at the time.
There is always risk....how we deal with them is important but identifying them is the key.
One short quote from him is "In this game we play for keeps!".