Is starting an EZY MPL a sane idea in 2023?
I appreciate there may be an element of looking into a crystal ball to answer this question, but some people here who know the industry far better than me probably have better crystal balls than me!
I was looking at the EZY MPL as I know a couple of people near the end of it and one person who is now in the RHS from it. I'd probably look to start this summer, but this year also marks what is in theory the start of a 2 year recession where I can only assume the international travel market will take a huge hit once again.
I unfortunately also have friends who were shafted by EZY during COVID, a couple who stuck it out and are now hired but a couple who went onto spend a fortune to convert it to an ATPL.
EZY seem to be hiring *incredibly* quickly and despite what CAE would love to tell me when I phone them surely this will create a problem if people cut back and they can't afford their current or new cadets on the basis I wouldn't graduate the MPL until the end of 2024.
Admittedly everyone I know has a job now but my question is, with our economy about to implode even more than it already has, is the EZY MPL now an even bigger 100k lottery ticket? Or would you say my prospects of being employed at the end of 2024 and not being dumped before I hit 1500hrs are reasonable enough to justify the 100k and risk over getting an fATPL and seeing what happens?
I guess the sub-question is whether the likelihood of me securing a job saving 40k and going modular (and potentially spending that saved money on a paid for TR courtesy of a certain airline) which is what id do in absentia of the MPL is similar enough as if I gamble on EZY hiring me? Saving money is always good and it does also provide me with a vast amount more flexibility which feels a good thing to me given the turbulent nature of which airlines hire and suddenly collapse - correct me if you disagree.
i'm early 20s so I lack life experience but on the flip side that means they can get more years out of me so I don't consider myself a competitive applicant nor do I consider myself a CV that would be tossed in the first phase!
I see a couple of airlines are hiring low hour people but feels a bit awkward if I get 2-3 rejections after the ~2 years I assume it would take getting everything modular in order.
At that point I'm not sure what I'd do other than work using my degree and spend all my income keeping my licence current to reapply whenever I can - which I suppose isn't a terrible idea on the basis my degree has a very good earning potential anyway, just isn't my dream. I know there is the TUI MPL which is much more appealing as free so if that collapses so what, but I dare say that will be orders of magnitude more competitive than a course that has a "do you have six figures in the bank" sieve before the first round of testing, so I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket.
In summary; with where things are, are EZY or other (self sponsored) MPLs actually likely to be still taking on board their MPL grads in 2 years time and keeping them for 1500hrs, or is the market turbulent to the point where I'd either be more likely to get a job or just not lose 100k on an MPL I can't do anything with by going modular and just seeing who is hiring (hoping there are some airlines hiring low hour fATPLs) by the time I finish.
I expect there to be a fairly diverse range of opinions on this(?) so any and all comments are welcome - as is any advice you'd give for someone hoping to enter the industry via an MPL or fATPL in about 2 years.