Lookleft,
How did the leaned fellow rule out pure happenstance akin to the Laws of Probability and achieve absolute certainty of outcome?
The Swiss Cheese Model does not start with the beginning....which Reason's method seems to do.
To believe Reason's thinking then it would seem any change being made would lead to a tragedy or does he find a way to analyze change to identify the "fatal" changes?
In my Opinion the Swiss Cheese method looks backwards from the Tragedy to identify the "holes" among which should be listed the "changes" that Mr. Reason discusses.
I am not disagreeing with you or Mr. Reason.....but am suggesting both methods are valid but it would appear Reason's method requires an active response to any change and identifying what change qualifies for analysis must be made.
The Swiss Cheese method looks back and identifies changes that should be made.
The Swiss Cheese method serves as a Quality Control Measure for those embracing the Reason method if previously employed by an Operator to enhance its safety program.
Of course hind sight is 20/20 and comes after a tragedy where Lives are lost.
Historically accident investigations always start with the accident and then start looking for causes with the hope of sorting out ways to prevent future occurrences.
How does an Aviation Safety Advisor sell the "Reason" method to Senior Management?