Originally Posted by
Lima Juliet
Mate, you need to check your maths…
The annual capitation rate for a junior aircrew mate is in excess of £100k. So you would pay off £480k if it saved buying over 4 of your so-called “extra pilots” in a single year. That doesn’t even account for the training cost of a single Pilot either, which is well in excess of £480k for just one!
PS. We are in a recession! The Nov 22 figures confirmed that.
PPS. This system won’t predict anything, it will allow the folks that manage this to throw in scenarios and “what ifs” to see what effect they may have. Also, if there is a big change like an SDSR or IR, then it will allow them to understand its effects and then model some outcomes to try and mitigate things. It isn’t some sort of Gypsy with a crystal ball, it’s a management tool, but a complicated one with many variables.
I stand by my maths. If you think Boston Consulting will only get paid £480k, dream on. And once they have “helped” to identify the causes of the problem and the solution, someone will need to be tasked and paid to come up with the inevitable “integrated” IT system, and history is not kind to those projects. Think years late and millions over budget.
As for the cost of training “surplus” pilots, the marginal per capita cost is nothing near £100k. In the early stages it would be little more than salary, albeit the fact we have outsourced much of the training, I accept the cost would be higher. It is of course only an incremental cost of it turns out you don’t need the pilots, and takes no account of the cost ( financial and other) of having too few.
Think about what the new system is being asked to do, and ask how it can be any more accurate than the present. The variables are many and, er, variable. The reason it is so hard is that we can’t predict the future, and if we chose to eliminate all margin for contingency, then we can quickly and easily find ourselves in the sort of situation we are in now.
let me try putting it another way: do you believe that a cheque to Boston Consulting for £480k is going to be the cost of fixing this?