Originally Posted by
Pali
The main thing is that Russian population is in decline in general. Baby boom peaked in 1994 followed by steep decline then it went up a bit till 2013 and since then there is a steady decline. Now consider not only men avoiding conscription but since the beginning of 2022 four million people left Russia. Demographics crisis will be aggravated. Even less kids will be born which means lack of workforce, tax revenues but also less soldiers in the future. Russia cannot really afford to let their men slaughtered like we see at Bachmut or other fronts. Putin is eating up the future of Russia. Fatherless households bring about criminality, alcohol abuse, mental health issues. There is surplus of women due vodka, past wars and we can assume that many husbands will not come back from this one. With inability to sell gas and crude oil and with demographics crisis the future of Russia looks really bad including capability to conduct wars.
To add to the problem most of those leaving Russia because of the war are young men. Most likely they will be educated young men that have skills that will enable them to earn a living outside Russia. The effect of the loss of those people will be greater than their numbers indicate.