Possibly, I'm well-placed to comment on some of NZ's strategic interests and challenges. I trained with the current NZ CDF and CAF; was on 5 Sqn (P3s); served in a research capacity with the RNZN; and then spent over two decades with the RAF, but mainly in MOD and with other departments. Over these years I also had many professional encounters with NZ, and travelled out there on to work trips, as well. I was also back in NZ recently and met with colleagues who are still serving in both uniformed and civilian capacities.
There is a dichotomy in NZ. Pre-pandemic, Kiwis were inveterate travellers - there were very few corners in the world where you wouldn't see - and hear - Kiwis. Indeed, the OE ('Overseas Experience') is still regarded s a Rite of Passage for middle-class New Zealanders. However, and in spite of this Globe-Trotting, New Zealanders can be surprisingly naïve about the wider world, especially threats and challenges.
New Zealand is in a benign part of the world - with no immediate, existential threats. Accordingly, the immediate need for large, well-equipped and expensive armed forces is difficult to justify. Kiwi social media is full of "why are we getting involved in Ukraine/China/Middle East etc?" as if the country lives in some self-supporting, self-perpetuating haven of peace and plenty.
However, NZ's trading interests are global and are increasingly focussed on the Middle East and Far East. Not only are these markets sometimes challenging and unstable, goods and services have to pass through these areas of instability. The vulnerability of NZ's lines of communication is nothing new: a cursory read of the impact of commerce raiders, submarine warfare and mining (in domestic waters) in both World Wars demonstrates this and strategically and technologically, nothing has changed. Geography doesn't change, but ignorance does.
Recognising this, repeatedly over the last 120 years the New Zealand Government has committed forces to be part of a much larger coalition, initially as part of an Imperial commitments then increasingly in coalition with the US and supporting NATO or peacekeeping with the UN. This keeps the skill sets alive and enhances interoperability and shows NZ has 'skin in the game'. Increasingly, however, NZ is tip-toeing around China's strategic ambitions (because of economic consequences) and domestically, politics is driven by culture wars and identity politics. There seems little capacity to engage - and want to engage - on international issues with the exception of Climate Change. And before someone goes 'Full Gammon', NZ's AOI encompasses a number of nations already being affected by changing sea levels, and the instability that this can cause.
Whilst the causes for personnel shortages in the RNZN are varied and many, NZG should consider lessons from the past and stress that NZDF, including the RNZN, has a global remit as part of like-minded coalitions - which might include warfighting. The government should not only publicise this, but also be prepared to fund it on a long-term basis and celebrate this (eg the P-8 and C130 acquisitions). NZ personnel have an enviable record of superb performance on every battlefield - in every theatre they have fought. Equally they have a reputation for speedy humanitarian disaster response across the Indo-Pacific basin, The Government should not shy away from embracing these capabilities.
As an aside, I was shocked to read that during 2022, in Term 2, only 40% of school children regularly attended school. At the same time, levels of children's literacy continues to fall. Out of 41 OECD countries, NZ is 35th in terms of child well-being: amongst other social indices NZ has the second highest obesity rate in the OECD. More than 1 in 3 children are obese or overweight. Meanwhile only 64.6% of 15 year olds in New Zealand have basic proficiency in reading and maths. This will inevitably impact on students taking up STEM subjects and therefore recruitment into STEM industries, including within the forces. Whichever government is in power, it needs to focus on the quality and content of education to tertiary level (and not on alternative reality fairy stories and mythologies).
There is no excuse for NZ being a third world country, given the bountiful natural and human resources.
Last edited by Whenurhappy; 6th Jan 2023 at 10:33.