Thanks BV - there is of course something else to consider with house prices and that is Mortgage Interest Rates. In 2004 the interest rates were around 6% (I think my mortgage at the time was 5.75% fixed for 3 years), whereas over the past 10 years then you could easily find mortgages half that rate fixed for 5 years at 2-3%. So the affordability of a house was just as much in the grasp as it ever was. Now your house price in Apr 04 is correct at £150k but the average in Apr 22 was lower than you quote it’s £277k (that is Land Registry figures from the graph below):
Now, you’re right, in 2022 we are pretty much FUBAR’d as interest rates have gone up to 5-6% but the house prices are only just starting to budge downwards. Certainly around my area (about 40 mins drive from HQ Air) then we’ve see 5% reductions in the past 2 months. The same goes for the West Country that saw some of the biggest growth due to people moving there during COVID. Now, they are expecting a further 5% in 2023. So I’ve added an arrow to show that - average will probably be closer to £240k.
Now using those figures again, that is £50k wages for £150k house in 2004 (1:3) with my 5.75% interest rate would pay £849 per month. Now the best new buyer 5 year deal right now in Dec 22 is HSBC with 90% LTV at 4.84% fixed for 5 years - for say a £277k mortgage with a £28k deposit (say using one of those new £40k Aircrew Retention Payments after tax) that would be £1,432 per month for a repayment mortgage (the only type of mortgage I would recommend). We were getting retention payments in around the 2000-2005 period too.
Using the BoE inflation calculator then £849 per month in 2004 would be £1,405 per month in 2022. So in comparison to the
actual mortgage amount of £1,432 per month it is only £27 a month adrift!
We all know that times are tough right now, but I don’t think it’s helpful spreading misery of how much better off we were in 2004 compared to 2022. We weren’t really, it was all about the same - in some cases we were slightly better off, or slightly worse off in others, but it all blobs up to be about the same. I didn’t buy my first house until 9 years into my Service, and now in the twilight years of my career I am just paying it off (having remortgage for sales 3 times after the first). I’ve had houses ‘Oop North and Dhan Sarf, I’ve been realistic as to what the family can afford and I have taken advantage of the cheap Mess accommodation if I needed to live away for short periods away from them. As long as I was sensible and realistic with that then I have been able to accept postings across the UK and keep my family in my own home. I still believe that is possible today, but if I am posted to RAF Benson or Brize Norton I won’t be buying a 4-bed detached nestled in the Chiltern Hills or Cotswolds with far reaching views, but I would be able to afford a house near, but not in, Banbury, Bicester or Gloucester with a 30-40 minute commute of the nearest base. Just like flying, you just have to accept compromise.
Further, I agree, we can all sell our souls to live and work in another country to significantly raise salaries, but that too comes at a cost for some (it’s why I declined BAe 20 years ago as the money wasn’t personally worth the sacrifice required). But, it works well for some - but I would NOT advise China though! This chap is spending Christmas in chokey!
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/daniel-...ts-indictment/ . But the Services cannot and will never match the salaries of these deals - even if they did then the contractors would just raise them again and again passing the cost onto the customer. So really, the Service is better off just accepting they will lose onesie-twosies and ensure they train enough replacements and make sure that the Service environment is somewhere people want to stay with a fair wage (which drags me back to my point - it’s the working environment that is the real issue here, not the money
).