Originally Posted by
ORAC
Belarus 🧵 We're seeing new developments in Belarus, which could have major repercussions for Belarus and Ukraine.
Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document).
After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.
Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.
Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.
The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.
We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.
However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations.
On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service. Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.
Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else).
Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact. We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus to explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost.
We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months.
Ukraine has shown restraint to Russia. Belarus supporting an attack would be an act of war, and the constraints on response on military targets within Belarus may be much more liberal. Not a desirable situation, but Belarus is playing with fire.