Originally Posted by
FullWings
The automation will have to become better, as we are at the unfortunate time where it’s reliable up to the point where things get really bad, then it dumps the whole mess on the (single) pilot. Much in the way of self-driving vehicles in their current state of evolution. If the sole pilot who is awake is in the toilet when something bad happens (there was an opportunity for a joke there but I resisted it), then the aircraft must be able to cope.
I think this is the key point. Making judgements based on current aircraft automation isn't valid because the current systems are all designed assuming human monitoring and input. The classic example is that modern automation is designed to disconnect and dump things back on the pilot(s) if it runs into trouble. To make single pilot (and eventually fully autonomous) operations viable will require a complete rethink of the automation systems - such that the 'backup' is not an external human but logic (and perhaps systems) integrated into the automation.
Referring to the area of my expertise, take engine controls. 80 years ago the pilot moved a lever that opened and closed the throttle on the engine to control engine power - the pilot was directly involved in the physical control of the engine. Modern engines used FADEC - the pilot (or automation) requests the power/thrust level desired, computers handle everything after that including the fuel metering valve position - there is no 'backup' - if the computer quits, so does the engine. Yes, there are backup modes to deal with loss of certain inputs, but again this is all controlled by the FADEC. Yes, most commercial aircraft have two or more engines - but if the FADEC software is defective and causes the engine to quit, they're all running the same software so there is no redundancy for s/w errors - all the engines will make the same error.
Commerical Aviation is necessarily conservative and resistant to change. It took decades to get comfortable with the idea that you don't need navigators and flight engineers. It took decades to get used to the idea that we didn't need more than two engines for long, overwater flights. It'll take a long time - probably decades - before automation advances to the point where the human pilot is redundant and can be reduced (and eventually eliminated).
But I have little doubt it'll eventually happen.