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Old 26th Oct 2022, 07:50
  #60 (permalink)  
fdr
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Originally Posted by YRP
This is something that is distressing about our society.

We expect pilots/controllers/engineers/[insert profession here] to push the limits on performance, weather, costs. If one makes a safety call, eg a diversion, the response is often “why, it would have been fine”. Yet if something goes wrong, it is “how could you have done this”.

You can never prove the safety call was “necessary”, i.e. that there would have been an accident, and you can never prove that pressure caused an (in hindsight) poor choice.

And yet we pick on individuals who make hard calls.
There is an odd statistic between decisions of professionals and amateurs. Under stress, the difference in the correctness of a call was apparently not statistically different, the same error rates existed. The identified difference was the time to arrive at a decision. Arguably it could be said that Professionals make their confident mistakes faster than amateurs. That was for simple, linear decisions. When the events get more complex, while there has been no study that I have come across beyond the relatively simple NDM/ADM heuristics, there could be an outcome where with complex and evolving, dynamic events that the professional starts to perform better, as they have their learned decision making heuristics and may thereby retain enough bandwidth to revisit bad decisions if detecting the slip between expected and actual outcomes. This is not a cultural matter beyond the matter of concern or input to a decision process. Standard B/S CRM there. The other side of that coin is that where the decision making is so routine and easy, that no one questions the accuracy of the decision that is made, the more emphatic and certain the statement of fact, the lower the likelihood that it will be challenged.

Flight crew make decisions in dynamic, time limited situations, and may have conflicting inputs, and too frequently under a pathological management system that does not want any adverse condition to occur or be reported. For every bad event that occurs where a crew get criticized justly or unjustly, there are tens of thousands of the same family of events that are being managed usually with crews of corresponding competency. Stuff happens, humans remain the means to cope with matters that may not be preprogrammed. Our failures are pretty darned obvious, successes less so unless in very unusual circumstances.
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