Originally Posted by
tartare
But I think this may go some way to explaining the real reasons why no ATACMS, fast jets etc.
It's not just a fear of escalation, or that the Ukrainians might strike deep into Russia with longer range weapons.
It's that we don't want them to win too quickly - because if they do - we won't have degraded the Russian military enough...
If so, it may be a poor strategy. Had the munitions been on hand, with the reach to all rear areas that Ukraine needed to cover, including Kerch, including all border crossings of main roads and highways, Russia would have still lost their leading capability, they had already lost much of their competency in the first 30 days, and there is precious little competency left in the field now for the Russians at any level. Providing the reach early would have saved conscript lives in Russia, and many lives in Ukraine, service and civilians. Russia's offensive capability to invade NATO appears to have been cured by Mr V.V. Putin, Ukraine just highlights their capability.
Originally Posted by
NutLoose
If these new regions did split off from Russia and become independent states in their own right, then The US, U.K. and Russia could sign an agreement to come to their aid in return for them giving up their nukes… ohhh wait, we have been down that path already. For China saying a region is now under their “ protection “ it sounds like a land grab in the making.
After the last effort of a memoranda out of Budapest, not sure there is much credence to anything that isn't able to be ratified. The last time someone gave up their nukes for platitudes, one party to the assurance invaded them, and the others played coy on giving them any munitions in which to defend themselves until it became evident that they would not go quietly into the night, and were in fact able to break the nose of the aggressor. Then we start eking out support, but not too much, just enough to make us all feel happy. We did somethings, we should have done more. Ukraine has taken these hits and that happens to be in our interests too. Our masters have been worried about giving the Ukrainians munitions that are intended to defend against Russia, and when there is need for them to defend a country against Russia, we behaved like supply officers; "if I give you those flying gloves, then I will only have a dozen left, and what if someone else needs a dozen?".
China just increased it's reach by just being polite and saying no to Russia, and they have influence now that covers immediately a large part of Russia's Federation, and it will likely expand. All they need to be is nicer than Putin, and that is a low bar. For Russia itself, that is the largest disaster for them, and they still don't seem to get it; if they did, they would be getting out of Ukraine tout suite, replacing divots and thanking Ukraine for the hospitality, and then going out and protecting their "Federation" which is at risk of being that bit of turf from Moscow to St Petersburg, and there is a risk that St Pete would prefer to be with a very successful country to it's north. Finland's GDP is about... 300B, which Russia will wish soon to have maintained. Russia started at about 1.45T, and they have effectively lost all of their military exports, and their energy exports are collapsing. Drop a nuke, and there will be no energy or food exports at all. After that, Finland's GDP will start looking good. Finland's per capita GDP was 2.5 times Russia's before, now, it is about double to treble that.
And that is before Russia gets the bill for breakages.